HOUSE PRICES in Finland fell by more than five per cent year-on-year in February.
Statistics Finland on Thursday reported that the prices of old dwellings in housing companies fell especially in large cities – by 10.4 per cent in Vantaa, 7.1 per cent in Helsinki and 6.8 per cent in Oulu.
While the six largest cities in the country recorded a drop of 6.1 per cent and the capital region a drop of 6.7 per cent from the previous year, areas outside the largest cities registered one of 4.4 per cent.
Also the volume of sales decreased, with real estate agents brokering 15 per cent fewer sales in February 2024 than in February 2023.
The preliminary data offer some grounds for optimism, too. The prices of old dwellings in housing companies crept up by 1.4 per cent from the previous month, with increases recorded also in all large cities.
“In February, the development of home prices was better than expected both in and outside the capital region. The development witnessed at the start of the year is a reflection of the tax code change that took effect at the turn of the year, which encouraged first-time home buyers to take action late last year and decreased sales early this year,” Joona Widgrén, a senior economist at OP Financial Group, analysed according to Helsingin Sanomat.
“[The change] explains the lacklustre sales in January—February.”
Although house prices developed slightly better than the financial services provider expected, a more meaningful recovery will hinge on market activity, according to Widgrén.
“People will still have to wait for a recovery in the house market because sales volumes recover will have to recover before prices start increasing on a more permanent basis,” he stated.
Also Juhana Brotherus, the chief economist at the Federation of Finnish Enterprises, estimated that the market will continue to decline for some time. An upswing, he predicted, will not occur until later this year once falling interest rates and strengthening purchasing power make the financial equation more favourable for potential buyers.
“The house market is being depressed by hard and soft headwinds,” he wrote. “Buyers are losing interest because interest costs and maintenance fees can exceptionally be even higher than rents. Also loan repayments add to the monthly costs. At the same time, households are extremely cautious and sensitive to crises because their general sense of security has been shaken by the coronavirus, energy, war and, most recently, strike crises.”
“The uncertainties are reducing especially large acquisitions, of which home is the most important.”
Veera Holappa, a senior economist at Pellervo Economic Research (PTT), is slightly more optimistic, estimating that the return of first-time buyers could provide a boon to the housing market as soon as this spring.
“As household sentiment improves and first-time house buyers are starting to return to the market, chains of sales will start going through. It could rejuvenate the market as soon as at the dawn of summer,” she said.
Aleksi Teivainen – HT
If you’re looking for a great property to invest in, you may have already heard “Location, location, location!” Certainly, finding the right spot is an important starting point. Beyond identifying the right location, you’ll want to pick your asset class, such as opting for multifamily, retail, office, or development, which I’ve covered in detail in previous articles. You’ll also need a business plan in place to show to others, including partners, lenders, and other investors.
As you go through the process, keep in mind that analyzing the right data can reveal many factors about the market you’re considering. The key is to find the right data and interpret it when evaluating a market. You may discover that the property you’re considering is in a growing area or could increase in value due to economic factors in the region.
Consider the following guidelines in mind as you review data and make a real estate investment:
Be Aware of Job Figures
When looking at investing in a city, it may seem reasonable to evaluate the job market. Areas that are growing and hiring more employees could be a sign of a strong economy. However, in today’s hybrid world, determining job growth could be more challenging. That’s because if a job is reported in one market, the person hired might live in another state and stay there to work remotely. Given this, the job data related to a city might not give the full picture of who is living there. Check carefully to see where the jobs are being offered.
Check Population Data and Demographics
If a city is growing, and more professionals are moving in, it could be a positive sign for the local economy. Look at studies on returning to the office or resources such as Kastle, which analyzes office occupancy rates, to see if employees are working face-to-face in the location you’re considering. You can also check what types of industries are operating in the area. Once you know this, you’ll be able to think about real estate assets that would complement the trends. For instance, if a market is known as a big tech center, you could look at what type of office space is needed. You could also check what kind of housing will be in demand, such as if the workers are looking for roommates in an apartment or prefer single-family homes. Look at apartment occupancy levels to get an idea of residential trends.
Understand Foot Traffic Numbers
With the advent of anonymized cell phone data, we can now access useful information about a market and view the related trends. You could look at foot traffic numbers for a location you are evaluating. You might be able to identify commute patterns and understand how people move through a particular space. This can be especially valuable when making office and retail decisions.
Look at City Tourism and Projects
Check transit studies to learn figures related to subway travel, along with rail and highway routes. Find how many people are coming through a nearby airport regularly, and review tourist numbers and hotel occupancy rates. If these statistics are up, it could be a sign of a strong local economy.
In some areas, you might spot changing infrastructure such as a new subway station that is being built or a train route which will be added to a line. You could learn about a plan to build a city park or other public space. Knowing which projects have been identified, along with when they are expected to be finished, can help you make a decision. You’ll be able to compare this insight to the other information you’ve gathered to get a strong sense of where the market is headed.
While considering location will also be essential when making a real estate investment, there are many additional resources you can tap. With the data that’s now available, you can look at the changes in population, see what industries are booming, and know how people are moving through the area. All these factors can help you see if the location you’re considering is right and has the potential to generate an outsized return on your investment.
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Manchester United have held talks with the brains trust behind Liverpool’s successful transfer activity under Jurgen Klopp as they continue the process of improving their own recruitment.
Mail Sport has learned that United have had discussions with Ludonautics, the sports advisory and statistical analysis business run by Liverpool’s former Director of Research Dr Ian Graham, but they are not working for the club.
Ludonautics was launched by Graham last year in an attempt to offer the data and analytical services he provided in 11 years at Anfield to other clubs.
Liverpool’s former sporting director Michael Edwards also works for Ludonautics as a consultant having rejected numerous offers to return to full-time work at other clubs.
Graham and Edwards spent 10 years together at Liverpool having previously worked with each other at Tottenham, and have been widely credited with providing the analysis which led the club to pursue bargain signings such as Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Andrew Robertson.
It is unclear whether United made a formal offer to engage Ludonautics, but they are not currently working for the club. Sources at Old Trafford told Mail Sport that United maintain an on-going dialogue with a number of data and analytics providers to ensure they are fully informed about the latest developments in a rapidly evolving sector.
United’s recruitment has been widely criticised in recent years and has been earmarked as a priority area for new minority shareholder Sir Jim Ratcliffe, who is taking steps to improve matters.
In addition to the appointment of Omar Berrada as chief executive and moves to poach Dan Ashworth from Newcastle as sporting director, United also want to recruit a technical director and performance director to work under him.
Ratcliffe’s other sporting interests prioritise the use of data, most notably the Ineos Grenadiers cycling team, and that is regarded as another key area where improvements can be made at United.
Ludonautics have been appointed by several clubs across Europe to provide bolster their recruitment departments in the last few months, but do not disclose their list of clients.
United and Ludonautics declined to comment.