PwC pulls no punches in a just-published report titled “The sustainable food revolution: future-proofing the world’s food supply”.
“The world is facing a food crisis,” it says.
“This crisis is immediate, but also long-term. Shortages caused by the war in Ukraine have amplified … challenges to the sustainability of global food production based on population growth, climate change and increased reliance on resource-intensive farming. Food companies need to brace themselves for change.”
Such assertions make the political right and some in big business see red, but the report’s authors insist they are not planting leftist seeds. “It is not mere ideology to assert that global food production and distribution must change. It is a simple matter of facts and figures…”
And the facts and figures are pretty stark.
“According to the UN, if the global population continues its current growth trend and reaches 9.6 billion people by 2050, it will take three planet Earths to support current food consumption patterns. That means that long before 2050, the current system will either break down or will have to undergo radical change.”
The meat industry
The report notes that agriculture accounts for 26% of the global greenhouse gas emissions linked to climate change and that it uses half of the world’s habitable land. It is also responsible for 70% of freshwater consumption, and 94% of the planet’s mammal biomass excluding humans is now livestock – a massive dewilding of the world’s faunal populations. One key driver has been a long-term shift in the global diet towards meat.
“The total volume and proportion of meat in the world’s diet has grown dramatically,” the report notes, from 23kg annually per person to 43kg per person, with consumption strongly correlated to income: in Ethiopia, annual per capita meat consumption is just over 5kg, whereas in the US it is 124kg.
The beef on this front is that meat production is highly inefficient, requiring as much as 100 times of the land needed to plant agriculture to get the same amount of calories. Meat accounts for 80% of agricultural land use but only produces 11% of the calories consumed. And beef generates up to 18 times more carbon emissions than peas, potatoes, nuts and fruit per kilogram produced.
Where there’s a market, there’s a way
The report calls for a shift in the global diet, noting that simple substitutions can make a big difference. Meat-related carbon emissions would fall 50% and water usage by 30% if everyone ordered chicken instead of beef. A complete U-turn to vegan diets would halve the food-related emissions per person in a wealthy meat-eating country such as the US.
The report notes that a changing diet is not “far-fetched” and is already under way.
“Today the food industry has an opportunity to become a shaper of such trends, and not a victim of them. Particularly retailers have the chance to establish themselves as first movers in a changing market, improving brand reputation and gaining market share. They can guide consumer choices by making bold adjustments to their food offerings.”
The report also says that governments could mandate retailers “…to introduce genuine ‘externality’ pricing, using methodologies such as True Cost Accounting that reflect the environmental costs paid by society for a product, as well as the direct production costs of the food itself”.
This could be similar to proposed models for carbon taxes that would see governments reimburse citizens the average amount they paid, which would help low-income households.
Disgraceful food waste
Eliminating food waste is also crucial. About a third of all food currently produced – enough to feed two billion people – is lost to inefficiencies in harvesting, distribution and retail. The rollout of digital technologies such as data-driven precision agriculture and supply chain tracking are among the solutions to this disgraceful waste, the report says.
“Alternative protein sources will proliferate, including meat based on cell cultures that mimic animal protein sources … and foods derived from insects,” it says. “Food may even be manufactured at home, as 3D printing of food emerges, and fully tailored [personalised] meals become possible.”
The 3D printing of food does seem revolutionary and moves well beyond having a home garden. It’s all food for thought. It’s also possible that the meat industry will find ways to become more efficient and lower its carbon footprint.
The report itself notes that apocalyptic forecasts rarely pan out – Thomas Malthus’s late-18th-century view that population was kept in check because it grew geometrically whereas agricultural production grew arithmetically comes to mind – but this brewing food crisis is on a different scale.
“The need for far-reaching change in food production and food consumption is a matter of fact and calculation … it is likely to be incremental, but incremental change can have powerful effects,” the report says. DM
This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R29.
‘We personally just don’t want to be involved anymore, but, for the right person, it could still be an ongoing operation,’ says owner
A Cochrane-area farm is closing after 16 years of operation.
Situated about 20 minutes north of the Town of Cochrane, Greg and Aileen Hessels’ Farm, a meat wholesaler, was established in 2009. The husband and wife duo sell beef, chicken and fresh farm eggs.
The 776-acre property, located at 4045 579 Highway in Cochrane, hit the market on Tuesday (Feb. 6) and is listed for $1.7 million.
While Greg hopes to sell the property to someone who wants to continue and expand the business’s operations, he said whoever purchases it might have a different vision.
“It’s not just a piece of vacant land. There’s major investment in infrastructure here that is still usable and ongoing. We personally just don’t want to be involved anymore, but, for the right person, it could still be an ongoing operation,” he said.
“It all depends on what form or shape the person that’s interested in coming on this property will do with it. They might have a totally different vision of things.”
The couple took to the business’s Facebook page on Monday (Feb. 5) to share the news of its closure. The post received hundreds of reactions, shares and comments with people expressing mixed emotions. However, most of them ultimately wished Greg and Aileen all the best with their next chapter.
“For everything there is a season, and this chapter of our lives is closing. What an adventure this has been, taking a vacant farm and bringing it back to life. But, it is time for us to move on to new adventures,” they wrote in their post.
“We have been so honoured to provide our products to so many families and businesses in our community and surrounding.”
Once the property sells, Greg said he’ll miss the land and the animals most.
“It’s been a great challenge to work alongside the kids and my wife and build things up… Build something together,” he said.
The family is extremely grateful for the ongoing support they have received from their customers over the years.
“We always have had great interaction with customers and they’ve always been very supportive in what we’re doing. We have a very a large customer base and we connect with a lot of people across a lot of different backgrounds. It’s just time for us to move to new challenges,” he said.
Until the farm is sold, Greg said they will continue to sell their products.