PwC pulls no punches in a just-published report titled “The sustainable food revolution: future-proofing the world’s food supply”.
“The world is facing a food crisis,” it says.
“This crisis is immediate, but also long-term. Shortages caused by the war in Ukraine have amplified … challenges to the sustainability of global food production based on population growth, climate change and increased reliance on resource-intensive farming. Food companies need to brace themselves for change.”
Such assertions make the political right and some in big business see red, but the report’s authors insist they are not planting leftist seeds. “It is not mere ideology to assert that global food production and distribution must change. It is a simple matter of facts and figures…”
And the facts and figures are pretty stark.
“According to the UN, if the global population continues its current growth trend and reaches 9.6 billion people by 2050, it will take three planet Earths to support current food consumption patterns. That means that long before 2050, the current system will either break down or will have to undergo radical change.”
The meat industry
The report notes that agriculture accounts for 26% of the global greenhouse gas emissions linked to climate change and that it uses half of the world’s habitable land. It is also responsible for 70% of freshwater consumption, and 94% of the planet’s mammal biomass excluding humans is now livestock – a massive dewilding of the world’s faunal populations. One key driver has been a long-term shift in the global diet towards meat.
“The total volume and proportion of meat in the world’s diet has grown dramatically,” the report notes, from 23kg annually per person to 43kg per person, with consumption strongly correlated to income: in Ethiopia, annual per capita meat consumption is just over 5kg, whereas in the US it is 124kg.
The beef on this front is that meat production is highly inefficient, requiring as much as 100 times of the land needed to plant agriculture to get the same amount of calories. Meat accounts for 80% of agricultural land use but only produces 11% of the calories consumed. And beef generates up to 18 times more carbon emissions than peas, potatoes, nuts and fruit per kilogram produced.
Where there’s a market, there’s a way
The report calls for a shift in the global diet, noting that simple substitutions can make a big difference. Meat-related carbon emissions would fall 50% and water usage by 30% if everyone ordered chicken instead of beef. A complete U-turn to vegan diets would halve the food-related emissions per person in a wealthy meat-eating country such as the US.
The report notes that a changing diet is not “far-fetched” and is already under way.
“Today the food industry has an opportunity to become a shaper of such trends, and not a victim of them. Particularly retailers have the chance to establish themselves as first movers in a changing market, improving brand reputation and gaining market share. They can guide consumer choices by making bold adjustments to their food offerings.”
The report also says that governments could mandate retailers “…to introduce genuine ‘externality’ pricing, using methodologies such as True Cost Accounting that reflect the environmental costs paid by society for a product, as well as the direct production costs of the food itself”.
This could be similar to proposed models for carbon taxes that would see governments reimburse citizens the average amount they paid, which would help low-income households.
Disgraceful food waste
Eliminating food waste is also crucial. About a third of all food currently produced – enough to feed two billion people – is lost to inefficiencies in harvesting, distribution and retail. The rollout of digital technologies such as data-driven precision agriculture and supply chain tracking are among the solutions to this disgraceful waste, the report says.
“Alternative protein sources will proliferate, including meat based on cell cultures that mimic animal protein sources … and foods derived from insects,” it says. “Food may even be manufactured at home, as 3D printing of food emerges, and fully tailored [personalised] meals become possible.”
The 3D printing of food does seem revolutionary and moves well beyond having a home garden. It’s all food for thought. It’s also possible that the meat industry will find ways to become more efficient and lower its carbon footprint.
The report itself notes that apocalyptic forecasts rarely pan out – Thomas Malthus’s late-18th-century view that population was kept in check because it grew geometrically whereas agricultural production grew arithmetically comes to mind – but this brewing food crisis is on a different scale.
“The need for far-reaching change in food production and food consumption is a matter of fact and calculation … it is likely to be incremental, but incremental change can have powerful effects,” the report says. DM
This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R29.
February auto sales hit an all-time high for the month after jumping 24.4 per cent from last year, DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc. said Monday.
Sales totalled an “astounding” 129,000 units for the month, the consultancy said, up from around 104,000 for the same month last year.
The sales total also eclipsed the 125,000 units sold in February 2020, the last time the month had an extra day and just before the pandemic threw the industry into turmoil.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1 million units for the unseasonably warm month was the highest since January 2018, said DesRosiers.
The latest sales figures, marking the 16th consecutive month of year-over-year growth, shows many of the challenges faced by the industry are now under control, said Andrew King, managing partner at DesRosiers, in a release.
“February 2024 sales tell us that some of the hurdles of recent years – and specifically the supply constraints of new vehicles – are now well and truly in the rear-view mirror.”
The pandemic had created supply issues both through plant shutdowns and a surge in demand for electronics that led the auto industry to have a shortfall of semiconductors. The disruptions led to a shortage of supply and a surge in pricing as automakers focused on their priciest and most profitable models.
Production is expected to finally return to pre-pandemic levels this year.
A Scotiabank report last month estimated that North American production should hit 16 million units this year, roughly in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average.
Last year’s production was estimated at 15.6 million units, while the 2021 low was 12.9 million.
But while production is recovering, prices are still elevated.
The average price of a new vehicle hit $67,259 in December, up 14.2 per cent from a year earlier, said AutoTrader in its latest monthly report. The average for used vehicles reached $36,863, a 1.7 per cent increase.
More supply does look to be at least taking pressure off price growth. The average new vehicle price in December was down 0.3 per cent from November, while the used vehicle price was down 2.4 per cent from the previous month.
But even with prices high, King said there is enough pent-up demand to keep helping drive sales.