HOUSE PRICES in Finland fell significantly at the end of last year, according to preliminary data released by Statistics Finland.
The data indicates that the prices of old dwellings in housing companies declined by 2.5 per cent year-on-year and 0.2 per cent month-on-month in December 2022, translating to a year-on-year decline of three per cent for the period between October and December.
Although the decline was particularly sharp for smaller dwellings, the phenomenon was not exclusive to them.
The decline is attributable to the rapidly rising energy prices, reference interest rates and cost of living in general. Euribor 12, the most popular reference rate for housing loans in Finland, has surged to 3.3 per cent after starting last year almost half a percentage point below zero.
The downward trend is expected to continue this year. OP Financial Group, the largest mortgage lender in Finland, forecast at the end of last year that house prices would decrease by an average of 4–6 per cent this year, driven by drops of 5–7 per cent in Greater Helsinki. Outside the capital region, the drops are not expected to be quite as dramatic – somewhere between 3.5 and 5.5 per cent.
Activity in the real estate market also slowed down significantly, with real estate agencies brokering 38 per cent fewer house sales in December 2022 than in December 2021.
Aleksi Teivainen – HT
SYDNEY, Feb 1 (Reuters) – Australia’s house prices extended declines for the ninth straight month in January amid high mortgage rates, a drag on household wealth that will further erode consumer spending and add to economic stress.
Figures from property consultant CoreLogic on Wednesday showed prices nationally fell 1.0% in January from December, when values dropped 1.1%.
Prices were down 7.2% from a year earlier. They were also 8.9% lower from their April peak, making last month the largest and fastest decline in values since at least 1980 as the Reserve Bank of Australia embarked on the most aggressive tightening campaign in modern history.
The monthly fall was led by Sydney where prices slid 1.2% in the month to be down 13.8% on the year, while Melbourne dropped 1.1% on the month and 9.3% on a year earlier.
Prices across the combined capital cities fell 1.1% in the month, while outlying regions – which have performed better in this housing downturn – lost 0.8%.
Tim Lawless, research director at CoreLogic, does not expect listing and purchasing activity would return to average levels until consumer sentiment starts to improve, after prices suffered the biggest fall since 2008 last year.
New listings in capital cities in January were 22.2% lower than over the same period last year, implying that most home owners seem to be prepared to wait this downturn out.
“Until Australians have a higher level of confidence with regards to their household finances and the outlook for the economy, it’s likely they will continue to delay major financial decisions,” Lawless said.
The RBA has lifted rates by 300 basis points to a 10-year high of 3.1% to curb red-hot inflation. Investors are wagering rates would rise by another 25 basis points next week when the Board meets for the first time this year. ‘
Consumers are already feeling the pinch from rising borrowing costs and sky high inflation, with December retail sales tumbling the most in more than two years, in a warning for the economy.
Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Jacqueline Wong
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
STOCKHOLM, Jan 31 (Reuters) – The effects of rising interest rates on the highly indebted commercial real estate sector is the main risk to financial stability, but a crash is unlikely, Swedish policy makers said on Tuesday.
War in Ukraine and the lingering effects of the pandemic have sparked a surge in inflation and a rapid rise in interest rates for companies – and households – that took on big debts during a decade of ultra-easy monetary policy.
Commercial property companies need to refinance around 300 billion Swedish crowns ($28.69 billion) of loans over the next couple of years. But risk appetite among banks and investors has cooled and some could face problems rolling over loans at much higher rates.
“There has been an unsustainable build up of risk in recent years and we need to see a correction,” Susanna Grufman, the acting head of the Financial Supervisory Authority, said during a hearing in parliament.
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“What is important from a financial stability perspective is that this (correction) doesn’t happen too fast.”
Spreads have already widened on debt issued by commercial real estate firms and some have started reducing debt by selling off parts of their portfolios.
Property companies account for around 44% of banks’ commercial lending, figures from the Riksbank showed.
The FSA reckons banks could see credit losses of up to 45 billion crowns in a sharp downturn, mainly caused by unlisted commercial property firms.
Sweden’s retail housing market is also a worry. Prices have fallen about 15% over the past year amid soaring mortgage rates and cost of living pressures.
But authorities do not expect another financial crisis like that which hit Sweden in the early 1990s when the central bank policy rate was hiked to 500%.
Over the last decade, lending regulations have been tightened and banks’ buffers against credit losses are stronger.
Authorities have better tools to deal with problems that materialize, including winding up banks that get in trouble, Karolina Ekholm, the head of Sweden’s Debt Office, said.
Furthermore, the current downturn is expected to be relatively short and mild, meaning unemployment is not expected to surge.
Nevertheless, adjustments in the commercial property sector and tumbling house prices will be a challenge for banks.
“Debts don’t go away. They need to be paid,” Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen said. “The level of debt is a challenge and I don’t think we can exclude a pretty nasty development.”
($1 = 10.4149 Swedish crowns)
Reporting by Simon Johnson; Editing by Christina Fincher
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Jan 27 (Reuters) – UK landlord Land Securities (LAND.L) said on Friday it sold One New Street Square office property in London to Hong Kong-based Chinachem Group for 349.5 million pounds ($432.12 million), in tune with its strategy to offload mature office spaces in the capital.
British landlords are grappling with a valuation slump of their properties, plagued by rising interest rates and broader economic uncertainty.
The 276,502 square-feet office space had a valuation of 362.8 million pounds in September 2022, Landsec said.
Landsec, after a strategic review undertaken in late 2020, had planned to sell about 2.5 billion pounds worth of mature London offices. With the latest sale, it is just 400 million pounds short of that target and will use the proceeds to repay debt.
London-headquartered Landsec, which has about 11 billion pounds worth of assets, with two-thirds of those properties in Central London, counts office spaces as its primary portfolio.
One New Street Square property, which Landsec bought in 2005 and, has 14 years of unexpired lease term remaining with Deloitte which has fully let the office space.
Landsec, one of the top UK landlords, had said in November the overall value of its properties dropped 2.9% as of Sept. 30 from the end of March, while the value of its key office portfolio dropped 4.4%.
($1 = 0.8088 pounds)
Reporting by Anchal Rana in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
LONDON, Jan 26 (Reuters) – Britain’s commercial real estate sector is increasingly feeling the pinch of higher borrowing costs, as investor enquiries declined in the fourth quarter and the outlook for the year ahead worsened, an industry survey showed on Thursday.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said 83% of respondents to its quarterly commercial property survey thought the market was already in a downturn, up from 81% a quarter before. Almost half considered this downturn to be in its early stages.
RICS said investor enquiries fell across all sectors for the first time since the start of the pandemic, with a net balance of -30 of respondents citing lower investment demand.
Tarrant Parsons, senior economist at RICS, said the investment side of the commercial property market was “significantly affected” by the Bank of England’s (BoE) tighter monetary policy, and that higher borrowing costs were weighing on investor demand and hurting valuations.
The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee raised its main rate at its last nine meetings and markets have priced in a half percentage point increase to 4% for Feb. 2.
British consumer price inflation was running at 10.5% in December, nearly five times the Bank’s 2% target.
Near-term capital value expectations dropped sharply across the board, and the industrial sector saw the weakest reading since 2011.
“Linked to the rise in government bond yields over the past six months, capital values have pulled back noticeably of late, while expectations point to this downward trend continuing over the near term,” Parsons said.
Looking at the year ahead, average capital values were forecast to fall further in all parts of Britain.
The survey of 940 companies was conducted between Dec. 7 and Jan. 13.
Reporting by Suban Abdulla; editing by David Milliken
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
FRANKFURT, Jan 25 (Reuters) – The European Union’s risk watchdog warned on Wednesday that market stress from a potential sharp downturn in the European commercial real estate sector could morph into systemic risk for banks that may lead to higher capital needs.
Supervisors have long warned that the bloc’s real estate market is at a turning point after a lengthy boom and commercial property was especially vulnerable as a cyclical downturn is exacerbated by changes in office use habits after the pandemic.
The European Systemic Risk Board has now issued a fresh recommendation to national and European Union authorities to monitor risks and get lenders to properly assess collateral while setting aside appropriate provisions.
“The sector is currently vulnerable to cyclical risks related to heightened inflation, a tightening of financial conditions limiting the scope for refinancing existing debt and taking new loans, and the pronounced deterioration in the growth outlook,” the ESRB said in a statement.
Climate-related economic policies such as changing building standards, a shift towards e-commerce and increased demand for flexibility in leasable office space, are adding to the pressures, the ESRB, chaired by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, said.
The recommendations come after the ESRB already sent a warning in September about rising default risks in he commercial real estate.
The worry is that a sharp downturn in the sector could have a systemic impact on the financial system and the broader economy by limiting banks’ lending capacity.
Lending to the sector is occurring at high loan-to-value ratios, which could rise even further if property valuations rise. This would then lead to higher provision and capital requirements, restricting banks’ ability to lend to others, the ESRB said.
An additional worry is related to liquidity mismatches in open-ended real estate investment funds, the ESRB added.
Funds therefore need to better align redemption terms and the liquidity of underlying assets and must assess risks arising from liquidity mismatch and leverage, it added.
Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Northland is one of just two regions bucking the downward national trend in the median house price.
Photo / Michael Cunningham
Northland is one of two regions experiencing a growth in the median house price but a real estate expert is advising buyers and sellers to treat the lift with caution.
Figures from the Real Estate
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Sharesies co-chief executive Leighton Roberts has tips for those interested in property funds. Photo / Supplied
Each week BusinessDesk and the NZ Herald’s Cooking the Books podcast tackles a different money problem. Today, it’s how to get started in real estate investing when you don’t have much spare cash. Hosted by Frances Cook.
We all know that New Zealanders have a mild property investment obsession. For decades now, it’s been one of the favourite ways for Kiwis to build their wealth.
But as prices went up, fewer and fewer people found property investment to be a realistic option for them.
When you need tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands of dollars, just to get started, well, that’s a pretty big ask.
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So what if you could get into property investment for just $5?
Even better, what if it’s not just the standard residential property options that most New Zealanders opt for, but getting into the commercial or industrial property investments that can take more expertise to get right?
Well, you can.
There are property funds that are listed on the sharemarket, that let you get into property investment for less money upfront, and also less day-to-day management from you.
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For the latest podcast, I talked to Leighton Roberts, founder and one of the 3EOs of Sharesies.
For the interview, listen to the podcast here.
• If you have a question about this podcast, or a question you’d like answered in the next one, come and talk to me about it. I’m on Facebook here, Instagram here, and Twitter here.
• Listen to the full interview on the Cooking the Books podcast. You can subscribe on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify.
WASHINGTON, Jan 20 (Reuters) – U.S. existing home sales plunged to a 12-year low in December, but declining mortgage rates raised cautious optimism that the embattled housing market could be close to finding a floor.
The report from the National Association of Realtors on Friday also showed the median house price increasing at the slowest pace since early in the COVID-19 pandemic as sellers in some parts of the country resorted to offering discounts.
The Federal Reserve’s fastest interest rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s has pushed housing into recession.
“Existing home sales are somewhat lagging,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York. “The decline in mortgage rates could help undergird housing activity in the months ahead.”
Existing home sales, which are counted when a contract is closed, fell 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units last month, the lowest level since November 2010. That marked the 11th straight monthly decline in sales, the longest such stretch since 1999.
Sales dropped in the Northeast, South and Midwest. They were unchanged in the West. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales falling to a rate of 3.96 million units. December’s data likely reflected contracts signed some two months earlier.
Home resales, which account for a big chunk of U.S. housing sales, tumbled 34.0% on a year-on-year basis in December. They fell 17.8% to 5.03 million units in 2022, the lowest annual total since 2014 and the sharpest annual decline since 2008.
The continued slump in sales, which meant less in broker commissions, was the latest indication that residential investment probably contracted in the fourth quarter, the seventh straight quarterly decline.
This would be the longest such streak since the collapse of the housing bubble triggered the Great Recession.
While a survey from the National Association of Home Builders this week showed confidence among single-family homebuilders improving in January, morale remained depressed.
Single-family homebuilding rebounded in December, but permits for future construction dropped to more than a 2-1/2- year low, and outside the pandemic plunge, they were the lowest since February 2016.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices fell.
MORTGAGE RATES RETREATING
The worst of the housing market rout is, however, probably behind. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate retreated to an average 6.15% this week, the lowest level since mid-September, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.
The rate was down from 6.33% in the prior week and has declined from an average of 7.08% early in the fourth quarter, which was the highest since 2002. It, however, remains well above the 3.56% average during the same period last year.
The median existing house price increased 2.3% from a year earlier to $366,900 in December, with NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noting that “markets in roughly half of the country are likely to offer potential buyers discounted prices compared to last year.”
The smallest price gain since May 2020, together with the pullback in mortgage rates, could help to improve affordability down the road, though much would depend on supply. Applications for loans to buy a home have increased so far this year, a sign that there are eager buyers waiting in the wings.
House prices increased 10.2% in 2022, boosted by an acute shortage of homes for sale. Housing inventory totaled 970,000 units last year. While that was an increase from the 880,000 units in 2021, supply was the second lowest on record.
“Home price growth is likely to continue to decelerate and we look for it to turn negative in 2023,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, a U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. “The limited supply of homes for sale will prevent a steep decline.”
In December, there were 970,000 previously owned homes on the market, down 13.4% from November but up 10.2% from a year ago. At December’s sales pace, it would take 2.9 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, up from 1.7 months a year ago. That is considerably lower than the 9.6 months of supply at the start of the 2007-2009 recession.
Though tight inventory remains an obstacle for buyers, the absence of excess supply means the housing market is unlikely to experience the dramatic collapse witnessed during the Great Recession.
A four-to-seven-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand. Properties typically remained on the market for 26 days last month, up from 24 days in November.
Fifty-seven percent of homes sold in December were on the market for less than a month. First-time buyers accounted for 31% of sales, up from 30% a year ago. All-cash sales made up 28% of transactions compared to 23% a year ago. Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales were only 1% of sales in December.
“While the stabilization of affordability will be good news for potential home buyers, a lack of available inventory could remain a constraint for home buying activity,” said Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani;
Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea Ricci
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Jan 20 (Reuters) – Land Securities Group Plc (LAND.L), Britain’s top commercial property landlord, has appointed broadcaster Channel 4’s Ian Cheshire as its next chairman, the company said on Friday.
The new Landsec chairman takes over the mantle at a time when UK commercial property values are seeing a slump, pressured by rising interest rates and broader economic uncertainty.
Aggressive interest rate hikes to tame stubborn inflation and deepening recession worries are dampening a tentative recovery in the British commercial property sector from the pandemic fallout.
Cheshire, the chairman of Channel 4 and private hospital operator Spire, replaces Cressida Hogg, who was named the next chair of defence firm BAE Systems (BAES.L) last year.
He will join the Landsec board in a non-executive capacity on March 23 and take over the chairman’s role on May 16, when Hogg retires after almost five years in that position.
Cheshire, 63, is currently a non-executive director at BT Group (BT.L) and will retire from the communications firm at their annual general meeting in July.
A veteran in the retail industry, Cheshire had joined Channel 4’s board last April and was in the forefront of discussions with the British government over its now-abandoned privatisation plan.
Reporting by Aby Jose Koilparambil in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D’Souza and Sherry Jacob-Phillips
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.