- Zillow expects annual home value growth to continue to accelerate through the spring, peaking at 22% in May before gradually slowing to 17.8% by February 2023.
- More than 377,000 existing homes are expected to have sold in February, a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.36 million.
Annual home value growth is likely to continue accelerating through the spring, peaking at 22% in May, before gradually slowing through February 2023. More than 6.4 million total existing homes are expected to sell in 2022.
Monthly home value growth is also expected to continue accelerating in coming months, rising to 1.8% in March and 2% in both April and May before slowing somewhat. By the end of February 2023, the typical U.S. home is expected to be worth almost $400,000. The robust long-term outlook is driven by our expectations for tight market conditions to persist, with demand for housing exceeding the supply of available homes.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales in February is expected to total 6.36 million, down from 6.5 million in January 2022 but up from 6.17 million in February 2021 (February 2022 existing home sales data are scheduled to be released by the National Association of Realtors on March 18, 2022). Existing sales volume (SAAR) is expected to remain the same in March as in February, before climbing slightly to around 6.4 million, where it is forecast to remain through the remainder of the year. Overall, Zillow expects 6.416 million existing homes to sell in 2022, up 4.8% from an already strong 2021.
However, downside risks to our forecast remain. Continued elevated inflation heightens the risk of further monetary policy tightening, which would result in higher mortgage interest rates and weigh on housing demand.