The true measure of a football team usually comes over time.
Yet snap assumptions, predictions and judgements are made every week, consequences of an instinctively reactionary sport built on fickleness.
It is that yo-yoing that makes football incredibly joyous and equally painful. Circumstances and fortunes can change week-to-week, match-to-match.
It is only on reflection, or over a lasting number of matches, that an accurate assessment can be made. At this season’s outset, Aston Villa had a multitude of issues, explained several times by The Athletic and worsened by poor results — an extension of a fraught summer.
Villa were the final team in England’s top seven divisions to score this season, exacerbated by injuries, the oldest squad in the league, and a disappointing transfer window, resulting in Monchi, the club’s sporting director, departing. That is not to mention manager Unai Emery’s accusations about players being “lazy”, members of the team being jeered off, Emiliano Martinez’s desperation to leave and a flatness to almost everything.
“I think the fans have the right to show and share emotions, and as professionals we must carry on and do our best,” said Emery, writing in his programme notes. “But we should not forget to be grateful. The players can be in a good or bad moment, but they always try and they deserve our FULL support.”
There is no greater momentum shift than winning and, following Villa’s miserable 1-1 draw at Sunderland — failing to beat a newly promoted side who had one player less for over an hour and during which Morgan Rogers’ substitution was cheered — internal figures felt the next fortnight had the potential to transform the mood.
Aston Villa were 18th and winless after their draw at Sunderland (Neville Williams/Aston Villa FC via Getty Images)
Before October’s international break, there were four games against opposition Villa would, ordinarily, be expected to beat. Home league matches against Fulham and Burnley were favourable, with the early forays into the Europa League serving as escapism from domestic rigours.
As it transpired, Villa won all four. Every performance showed refinement and the more positive characteristics previously associated with this Emery team. Confidence returned to players who had been devoid of it, especially those in the attacking positions, while the broader disquiet had significantly eased.
The extreme fluctuation in mood and results is problematic in ascertaining the true level of Villa and answering the two most pertinent questions: can Emery continue to eke out more from this group of players? Or will this season be when they plateau?
Frankly, no one knows. Not truly. People within the club and supporters will have their own opinions, but there remains a lack of evidence either way.
It is why the next few weeks will provide a more telling gauge. In some ways, the first true test will come over the next three league fixtures: Tottenham Hotspur (away), Manchester City (home), and Liverpool (away).
Overcoming and outmanoeuvring the biggest teams and most-skilled managers has always been an aspect of management Emery has taken deep satisfaction from. They are the matches that bring the best out of him, be it formulating specific plans or adjusting strategy in-game.
Villa’s qualification for the Champions League in the 2023-24 campaign was predicated on upsetting the odds and Emery’s acute tactical intelligence; they won at Tottenham, having changed system at half-time to overturn a 1-0 deficit. Ten days later, Villa’s standout performance under Emery was the 1-0 victory against Manchester City. In May, they clambered into the top four after recovering from falling two goals behind to salvage a draw with Liverpool.
All three instances were illustrative of Villa’s consistent quality over the course of a season and, more intangibly, the squad’s mentality. They were battle-hardened, prepared to stand up to the big boys, and had the conviction in their ability to go toe-to-toe with each.
Emery had created a ‘no-excuse’ culture inside the dressing room, refusing to use the unrelenting injury list to offer mitigation. Players were not allowed to think about the misfortune or use it as a reason for their performance levels dropping. Emery reiterated that he “accepted” each setback, eyes narrowing on the prize at the end of the campaign, which was Champions League football.
The idea was that, fundamentally, nothing could stand in their way. In the end, competitors fell by the wayside as Villa scrambled, fought, and clung on. History almost repeated itself the following season, rescuing a poor start with an extraordinarily strong end. Since March, only Manchester City have won more league games.
Villa ascended from mid-table at the end of February to missing out on the Champions League on goal difference, ultimately undone by a 2-0 defeat at Old Trafford.
Scars opened that day and shaped the summer. Gradually, excuses crept in. Ongoing tussles and toils regarding financial sanctions were discussed publicly, while Emery acknowledged that the late transfer business done was far from ideal for the season’s preparations.
“We are crossing a big gap from a complicated situation to get closer, in a fight with different resources, among English and European powerhouses,” said Emery. “Many clubs are dreaming of doing what we did over the last three seasons. And they are coming with everything.”
Interestingly, Emery also noted that Villa Park was not full for the Europa League victory against Bologna on September 25.
“(I am) grateful always with the supporters when we are playing at home, of course, in Villa Park or away,” he said. “But really, I was a little bit surprised yesterday when the stadium was not full. It is a surprise because we are very motivated and excited for the Europa League. We will need the supporters with the same motivation and the same excitement as we are.”
The next three league fixtures are stern challenges and offer a more accurate measure of Villa in 2025. Previously, Emery’s Villa would relish such tests and pull off some scalps, particularly at home.
However tough these matches may be, they will either go a long way to banishing doubts over the side’s credentials in the long term, or they will serve to reinforce them.
