Years ago, my wife and I moved out of Salt Lake City so I could take a job in Los Angeles. It proved to be a lot of fun. We could see the Hollywood sign from our house. The smell of Thai restaurants wafted over our neighborhood. The neon lights from the taco trucks flickered all night.

But a few years later our California sojourn came to an end when we had our first kid. Suddenly, we needed less nightlife and more space. By the time our daughter was 5 months old, we were in the process of moving back to Salt Lake — where we remain to this day. 

A lot of factors informed our decision. Probably the biggest was that the cost of living, especially housing, was far lower than in California. On top of that, our family had gradually converged on Salt Lake over the years, again in large part due to the area’s affordability compared to other parts of the country. And what we learned from this experience was that housing and families are deeply linked. You can’t talk about one without considering the other.

That’s always been true, but it’s an especially pressing point right now for two reasons. First, the cost of housing is bonkers, particularly now (ironically) in cities like Salt Lake and Boise which boomed during the coronavirus pandemic. And second, family sizes are on the decline as Americans have fewer and fewer kids. 

Over time, these two realities are going to crash headlong into each other. They’ll influence the types of houses people want, the neighborhoods that win the most attention, and the cities that end up thriving. In the best-case scenario, all of this could produce a future in which home buyers have an easier time climbing onto the real estate ladder. But there’s also a dimmer possibility in which a shrinking population crumbles the housing market as we know it. 

To understand what’s going on, it’s worth noting that the U.S. birthrate has been falling for years. The current decline began after the Great Recession, and according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “the number of births in 2020 is the lowest since 1980.”

The trend toward falling birthrates has become even more pronounced lately, with the Brookings Institute noting that the coronavirus pandemic appears to have led to 60,000 “missing” births that would otherwise have been expected during the first year of the crisis.

Some parts of the U.S., such as Utah, have managed to outperform the rest of the country when it comes to births. But even those regions have seen their rates gradually dip over the years.

One consequence of this trend is smaller households. Pew Research Center has charted the data going all the way back to the late 1700s and found that American households have been steadily shrinking for centuries, which the researchers attribute in part to people having fewer babies. 

So far at least, this trend hasn’t had much of an impact on housing. As anyone who has tried to buy a home recently has discovered, prices feel like they’re out of control. And they kind of are, with data showing an unprecedented spike in prices at the beginning of 2020.

Unsurprisingly, this spike in prices has made housing less affordable, and the problem is especially bad right now in Western states. Data from Redfin, for example, shows that in May, more than 61% of homes in Utah sold above their list prices. Redfin put seven Utah cities including Roy, Taylorsville and Murray in its “most competitive” market category, meaning homes in those areas usually go under contract in just six days, have their contingencies waived and sell above their asking prices.

Snyderville, near Park City, saw home prices rise an astonishing 124.9% in May compared to last year. Overall for the state, prices in Utah were up more than 25% last month compared to May 2021.

By comparison, Redfin’s data shows that overall in the U.S., home prices were up in May by more than 14%. That’s a significant jump, but also far less than what happened in Utah, or in neighboring Arizona, where prices were up more than 22% last month.

All of which is to say — you aren’t imagining it. Finding and affording a house really did get a lot harder recently. As they say on Reddit, housing went to the moon. 

So what does all of this mean? 

In the short term, changing family dynamics and rising housing costs may reshape the types of homes people want to buy. For instance, Pew has found that more and more people are living in multigenerational households. And that in turn is fueling demand for properties with basement apartments or backyard cottages. These kinds of properties make it easier for young families to live with, say, aging parents. And they let a larger group of family members pool their money to start climbing the real estate ladder. 

Whether the multigenerational trend sticks around is hard to say. But over time the impact of declining birthrates could have even more profound consequences. For example, if declining birthrates eventually led to a shrinking population, it could gradually reduce the demand for housing. In the best-case scenario, this might mean cheaper housing; prices are high right now because demand is high and supply is low. Reduce demand and you’ll have an easier time buying a house. 

But a shrinking population doesn’t necessarily lead to an affordable housing utopia. Just ask Detroit. 

At one point Motor City was the fourth largest metropolis in the U.S. Then its population spent decades in free-fall. Home prices in Detroit are low in response to this decline, but so are wages. As a result, Detroit’s homeownership rate has been falling, not rising, and more than half of the city’s renters are overburdened by their rent. Detroit’s shrinking population has not been a boon to its real estate market. 

This process has been replicated all over the U.S. Several years ago, my job involved crisscrossing the country on various reporting assignments. I met a lot of inspiring people on these trips, but I also saw a lot of dusty old “For sale” signs and boarded-up windows in the Rust Belt and Pennsylvania coal country. While a shrinking population does reduce home prices, it also stings the broader economy as well. 

It’s unlikely this type of bust is coming for fast-growing Western states. But it is possible to imagine slower growth being harder on some neighborhoods than others. Urban planning experts such as Charles Marohn have written about how suburban development requires constant growth in order to stay financially solvent. If this type of expansionist development becomes unprofitable, though, aging suburbs are going to face hard choices about how to fund things like street repairs. In this scenario, farther-flung areas might suffer the most from a slower-growing population, even as more centrally located neighborhoods with bigger tax bases and shorter commutes pull ahead.

It’s impossible to say what will happen in the years and decades to come. In 1950, no one could have imagined Detroit as it exists today. In 1900, few would have guessed that Los Angeles would eventually rise to become America’s second city. And overseas, countries such as Japan and Germany are dealing with significant challenges related to aging and shrinking populations, but have also not experienced financial ruin along the way. 

The good news here is that there’s still plenty of time to deal with these issues. In fast-growing places such as Utah, Idaho and Texas, for instance, part of the solution is more family-oriented housing in centrally located neighborhoods, rather than just out on the distant peripheries. It also means adapting building regulations to allow, or encourage, multigenerational households. For example, Salt Lake, like many cities, has an ordinance on the books that lets homeowners add mother-in-law apartments to their properties. But few people have actually built anything. Cities that are serious about thriving as family dynamics evolve need to figure out ways to clear the red tape so that housing can evolve as well. 

At the same time, families themselves need support. Part of the reason birthrates are falling is because in the U.S., it’s really hard and expensive to have kids right now. Parents struggle with expensive or inaccessible child care, a lack of paid leave, and lately, a shortage of critical supplies such as formula. These are complicated issues, but making sure that a region — and a region’s housing market — are healthy over the long term means making sure people can afford to have kids.

In any case, the relationship between families and housing is a deep one. And when one of those things changes it inevitably impacts the other. My hope, then, is that places that are currently thriving — including Salt Lake, where I currently live — manage over the long term to thread the needle through both housing and population growth.

Yes, investors have played a significant part in fueling the red hot U.S. housing market and driving home prices up to record highs during the pandemic housing frenzy.

That’s according to a recent report by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, which found investors have been snatching up “a record share” of single-family homes — with a spike in investor purchasing that began soon after COVID-19 hit the U.S.

“Adding to the pressure on prices, investors moved aggressively into the single-family market over the past year, buying up moderately priced homes either to convert to rental or upgrade for resale,” the Harvard report states.

How many homes have investors bought?

Of U.S. homes sold in the first quarter of 2022, 28% were purchased by investors, according to Harvard researchers’ analysis of CoreLogic data.

That’s up from 19% a year earlier and “well above” the 16% average investor share from 2017 to 2019.

Know that not all investors come from the same cloth. They range from big, company-backed investors to everyday Americans stepping into the rental or real estate business. A majority of this activity was driven by small to midsize investors, but a significant percentage was indeed driven by the big boys, according to the Harvard report.

Investors with large portfolios of at least 100 properties “drove much of this growth, nearly doubling their share of investor purchases” from 14% in September 2020 to 26% in September 2021, the report states.

Who are these big investors?

“Some are massive rental companies like Invitation Homes — the nation’s largest owner of single-family rental homes — which grew its portfolio during the pandemic,” Fortune reported. “Blackstone, which founded Invitation Homes back in 2012, also got back into the single-family home business during the pandemic” after it had sold most of its shares in 2019.

Online iBuyers, or real estate instant buyers, also swooped into the market, Fortune noted. Companies like Opendoor, Offerpad, RedfinNow, and Zillow Offers also made instant cash offers to sellers, then turned around to flip them to make profits off of service fees charged to the buyer.

But there are many — many — more investors that you’ve likely never heard of, Fortune notes, citing a recent Freddie Mac report. That report drew a more moderate conclusion at just how much of an impact investors have had on the market, noting investor shares were only “slightly up” at the end of 2021 (however, as Fortune noted, its analysis doesn’t fully capture all-cash transactions).

“While large corporate investors are rapidly rising as a share of the market and are likely to expand, they remain so small that their market share only has a modest impact on the overall percentage of investors,” the Freddie Mac report states.

But it’s also worth noting, Freddie Mac researchers wrote, that both big and small investors “heavily target under-market-value homes that need more repair than what most first-time homebuyers are willing to invest.”

Does this mean there’s a housing bubble?

Even though investors helped drive up prices — and fuel “exuberance” in the market — the U.S. housing market has also been largely driven by real, organic demand by house-hungry Americans.

Although home prices are starting to level off from a record surge in 2021 — as rising mortgage rates begin to strangle the market and price many Americans out of buying homes — both home prices and rental rates are “still rising because of the severe constraints on supply,” the report states.

The U.S. remains in the midst of a housing shortage. Inventory of existing homes for sale hit a new low of 850,000 units in January before bumping up to 1 million units in April. However, that’s still down 10% from last year, according to the Harvard report.

Investor activity, meanwhile, compounds the supply issue.

“By buying up single-family homes, investors have reduced the already limited supply available to potential owner-occupants, particularly first-time and moderate-income buyers,” Harvard researchers wrote.

Plus, investors are “more likely to target lower-priced properties,” the report adds. In September 2021, investors bought 29% of homes sold that were in the bottom third of metro area sales prices, compared with 23% of homes sold in the top third. And typically, once bought by an investor, those homes are often converted to rentals or are flipped at a higher price tag.

Where did investors buy up the most homes?

Naturally, investors saw dollar signs in high-demand, fast-growing, desirable locations where prices were rising the fastest — big cities in the South and, yes, the West.

“Not surprisingly, investors focused on markets with rapid home price appreciation,” the report states. That led to “especially high” shares of investor sales in Atlanta (41%), San Jose (38%), Phoenix (36%) and Los Angeles (34%) at the end of 2021.

That finding is supported, Fortune notes, by a separate Redfin analysis, which looked at all home sales, not just single-family home sales.

Atlanta still leads with the largest share of homes bought by investors in the first quarter of 2022, with 33.1%, according to Redfin. Jacksonville is close behind, with 32.3%, followed by Charlotte, North Carolina, with 32.2%, Phoenix with 29% and Miami with 28.2%.

Those same markets are also among the nation’s most “overvalued” housing markets that are at risk of seeing a home price decline,” Fortune reported, pointing to an analysis by Moody’s Analytics that has gauged regional housing markets at the most risk of seeing home prices decline up to 20% if a recession hits.

Investor activity spiked everywhere

It’s also worth noting that even though markets in the West and the South have seen the largest shares of investor activity, “almost every major U.S. housing market saw an uptick,” Fortune reported.

And even though Redfin notes investor home purchases fell in the first quarter of 2022, their share of the market has hit a record high.

“Investors bought up a larger share of America’s homes than ever before” in the first quarter of 2022, according to Redfin, noting investors purchased a record 20% of homes that sold, up from 15.3% a year ago. “A decrease in overall home purchases nationwide allowed investors to increase their market share even while purchasing fewer homes.”

Photo: istockphoto.com

House prices have steadily risen across the country and show no signs of slowing. While location is often considered the most important factor in determining home’s price, the house’s style also plays a role.

American Home Shield (AHS) conducted a survey of sold homes on Zillow, taking note of homes’ sale price and style to find the average price for each style of home in every state and nationwide. AHS used Zillow’s “architectural style” filter to determine the most popular house style in each state and based its findings on these style categories. Read on for a summary of these findings and details on the most (and least) valuable home styles in the U.S.

RELATED: House Styles: Cape Cods and Dutch Colonials

Photo: unsplash.com

The 10 Most Valuable House Styles of 2022

AHS determined that the following ten house styles were the most valuable across the country. They are listed in order, with the most valuable appearing at the top.

• Beach house: It may come as no surprise that the most valuable homes in the nation are beach houses, coming in at an average sale price of $1,223,310. Since this style of home typically comes with beach access or ocean views, its high value makes sense—especially considering that the land itself comes at a high cost.
• Mediterranean: Mediterranean-style homes take inspiration from Spanish and Italian architecture, with clay barrel tile roofs, stucco walls, and arched designs. They are typically found in coastal states with high property values, and they’re sold for an average of $991,408.
• Shingle: Shingle-style homes are emblematic of coastal areas of the eastern United States, and, like beach houses, they are often situated close to the ocean. They are known for their wood cladding and gambrel roofs and sell for an average of $960,638.
• Spanish: Spanish-style homes are inspired by colonial Spanish architecture, sharing a similar aesthetic with Mediterranean houses. They’re typically found in Florida, California, and the Southwest and sell for an average of $841,784
• Northwest contemporary: This architectural style is most often found in the Pacific Northwest and sells for an average price of $806,731. These homes incorporate natural elements and often have an asymmetrical design with large windows that bring in the outdoors.
• Mid-century modern: This architectural style encompasses a number of different home styles built between the 1940s and 1970s. Mid-century modern houses often feature open floor plans, large windows, and a low-slung design. These homes are found across the country and sell for an average price of $799,541.
• Mountain contemporary: Selling for an average of $794,574, mountain contemporary-style homes feature both modern and rustic elements and are often inspired by their natural surroundings.
• French country: French country architecture has a whimsical, fairy tale feel, taking inspiration from homes found in the French countryside, specifically Provence. Their average sale price in the U.S. is $780,230.
• Raised beach house: Raised beach houses have high values for the same reason as standard beach houses: location. Selling for an average of $734,697, these homes are elevated on risers to prevent water damage, but they otherwise share many characteristics with standard beach houses.
• Brownstone: Brownstones are usually found in highly populated urban areas, and are popular thanks to their historical aesthetic. This building style peaked in the mid-1800s, and today brownstones often retain their period character. They sell for an average of $733,890.

RELATED: This Popular House Style in Chicago Is Going Extinct

Photo: airbnb.com

The 5 Least Valuable House Styles of 2022

AHS found that these five styles were the least valuable in the nation. They are listed from least to most valuable.

• Mobile home: With an average price of $118,689, mobile homes are the least valuable style of home nationwide. Their smaller size and stigmatized reputation contribute to this low price, making them an affordable housing option.
• Manufactured home: Manufactured homes are similar to mobile homes in that they are pre-fabricated and typically have less square footage. In fact, the two terms are sometimes used synonymously. Technically speaking, however, manufactured homes are not actually movable, though they are built on a chassis rather than a permanent foundation. They sell for an average of $121,641.
• Shotgun: Shotgun homes, which are typically found in Southern cities like New Orleans, Charlotte, and Houston, are only a single room wide, meaning you must walk through one room to get to another. They were designed to maximize living space on small plots of land, and their average sale price is $140,831.
• Early American: Early American homes are the most popular home style found in Detroit and Fort Worth, selling for an average of $148,617.
• Conventional: Conventional style homes sell for an average of $173,536, and they are exemplified by their typical building materials and floor plans.

Photo: unsplash.com

House Styles That Sell the Most Often

While we’ve covered the home styles that are the most and least valuable, we haven’t touched on which style is the most commonly sold. When it comes to popularity, there’s one style that stands out from the rest. Ranch-style houses are the most sold style in eight states, and they’re typically found in landlocked regions where homeowners have larger plots of land and can afford to spread out their homes on a single level.

Ranch-style houses are followed in popularity by traditional-style homes, which are largely found in the Southeast and Central U.S. Colonial homes are popular in New England, while contemporary homes are the West Coast’s favorite. Craftsman-style houses sell the most in the Pacific Northwest, and pueblo-style homes are the most common in New Mexico.

RELATED: 6 Things to Know About Queen Anne Houses

East Point is turning an old public housing building back into affordable units.

The old, nine-story high rise stands only a few blocks from East Point’s downtown. The high rise, known as Nelms House, opened in 1974. Over time, it developed serious issues, including mold. In 2004, it closed. The building then sat vacant for nearly two decades.

In early June, a construction crew had already stripped the building to the frame. The workers moved with drills in and out of the gutted apartments, which were once full of residents.

“This was a 100 unit senior and disabled person complex that was owned by the East Point Housing Authority,” said the agency’s director Michael Spann.

The latest attempt to revive the apartments is a partnership between the housing authority and a developer called the Vecino Group. Local leaders said they hope it will help meet a growing need on the southside of Atlanta.

Spann said the renovation is now possible because of the state of the housing market.

“It’s the demand,” he said. “The demand for affordable housing.”

He said East Point is the next community south of Atlanta. So, as Atlanta struggles with rising housing prices, that spills over into East Point.

Several affordable developments opened up in recent years. All had waiting lists immediately, Spann said.

“I don’t want East Point to become one more community that the average person can’t afford,” he said.

The old Nelms House is set to re-open under the new name “Aya Tower” next year.

It’s expected to have 80 one and two-bedroom units priced for people who make around $30,000 to $40,000 a year.