When the National Association of Realtors agreed to implement rule changes around commissions last year, the response was apoplectic.
Studies suggested buyer agent commissions could be cut by as much as half. The Oppenheim Group’s Jason Oppenheim said it could amount to “armageddon.”
But nearly a year after the changes took effect, nothing of the sort seems to have materialized. Nationwide buyer commissions in the second quarter were 2.43 percent, the same level as the first quarter of 2024, when NAR announced its rule changes, according to a recent study by Redfin.
In the quarters following the announcement, buyer commissions ticked down to a nadir of 2.36 percent in the third quarter of last year before turning back around. Last quarter, buyer agent commissions were 2.41 percent.
But commissions haven’t recovered to the same degree across all price tiers.
For homes that sold for under $500,000, the average buyer’s commission was 2.52 percent, the highest at that price point since 2023 and seven basis points higher than last year. Homes that sold for over $1 million had an average buyer commission of 2.21 percent, down from 2.24 percent a year earlier.
“At the entry-level price point under $500,000, buyers are struggling to just purchase the house, so it is rare that a commission is negotiated,” said Andrew Vallejo, a broker with Redfin based in Austin, Texas.
Anywhere Real Estate, which publishes its average gross commission rates, reported roughly flat commissions for its franchisees and owned brokerages in the second quarter compared to the prior year.
The listings giant has documented in the quarters following NAR’s Aug. 17, 2024, deadline for the changes to take effect that buyer agent commissions remained nearly unchanged. But some agents have said that they still see a difference in buyer behavior, even if it’s not showing up in the commission data.
In March, Keller Williams’ William Krooss-Tadas told The Real Deal that his team has had half of its resale listing contracts signed come from direct buyers this year, compared to 10 percent last year.
“We’ve already gotten more direct signs this year than we had all of last year,” he said at the time.
The rebalanced buyer commissions come during a period where buyers have continued to gain leverage in inventory-saturated areas, perhaps an indication that commissions may fluctuate depending on the state of the market.
“One would assume that in a less competitive market for buyers, a seller is going to be more motivated to offer a commission, and arguably even a higher commission, as a way to incentivize buyers,” said Brown Harris Stevens’ Jared Antin. “If it was 2021 and homes were flying off the shelf, conceivably a seller could get away with offering a lower commission.”
“We don’t know how much the buyer commission might decline in a different market,” he added.
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