Aston Villa’s attacking problems in focus after Ollie Watkins scores five times in his last 30 games
Aside from its top and tail, the Premier League table has yet to really take shape.
After the first 10 Premier League games of the season, Aston Villa sit just four points off second and as many points above 16th-placed Leeds United.
That’s why next weekend’s home match against Bournemouth – who currently occupy fourth place – is an important one, even if it is still early in the campaign.
If the Premier League table isn’t going to take shape any time soon, then Villa must help define it. They missed a chance to make a statement last weekend against Liverpool.
The Reds had lost six of their previous seven games, while Villa had won six of their last seven in all competitions. Had Villa won at Anfield – and scoring the first goal would certainly have given them the platform to do so – they would have moved to within a point of second-placed Manchester City, who they defeated just over a fortnight ago.
Victories against Fulham and Burnley were crucial, before Villa backed those wins up after the October international break by beating Tottenham away and then City at home for the third successive season.
Villa’s form over the last six weeks or so has been very strong, though some concerns remain from their poor start to the season.
Unai Emery’s side failed to score until their fifth game in all competitions, with Harvey Elliott netting the first in a Carabao Cup penalty shoot-out defeat at Brentford.
It wasn’t a pretty goal, and Matty Cash’s effort that followed against Sunderland was the only strike Villa managed against 10-man Sunderland at the Stadium of Light. After that 1-1 draw, Emery criticised his team’s “lazy” defending and said they lacked an identity on the pitch.
The response that followed was strong, with five wins coming against Bologna, Fulham, Feyenoord, Burnley, and Spurs. Now, having played 14 games across all competitions, Villa have won six, drawn four, and lost four – scoring 14 times and conceding 13.
In the previous two and a half seasons under Emery, Villa have been capable of scoring plenty of goals, but clean sheets have been harder to come by.
When Villa finished fourth in 2023–24, they scored 76 goals but conceded 61. Last season, they scored 58 and shipped 51. In both of those campaigns, they recorded nine clean sheets.
So far this league season, Villa have kept three clean sheets, but goals are dramatically down compared to the last two campaigns after 10 matches. In 2023–24, Villa had scored 26 goals after 10 games, and 17 the season after. This term, they’ve managed just nine – a worrying drop.
The underlying numbers are even more concerning. Villa have posted an expected goals (xG) value of 7.5 after 10 matches – the second lowest in the league, with only Burnley behind them. The xG metric measures the quality of a scoring chance by quantifying the probability that it will result in a goal.
Despite ranking fifth for average possession (54 per cent), Villa’s goal output is well below the other top sides. The top three possession teams – Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea – have each scored 18 times, while City have bagged 20 and Tottenham, who rank sixth for possession, have scored 17, compared to Villa’s nine.
Villa rank 17th for big chances created (13), ahead of only Wolves, West Ham, and Burnley, while just two sides have registered fewer accurate crosses per 90 minutes than Villa’s 3.3.
Much of the criticism for Villa’s goalscoring woes has been directed at Ollie Watkins’ poor start to the season – he has scored just once, a well-taken lob over Fulham goalkeeper Bernd Leno. While Watkins would admit his performances have not been at their best, it would be unfair to judge him in isolation given the team’s creative issues.
So, what’s behind Villa’s worrying lack of chance creation? In part, it appears to be a personnel problem.
Villa rank 20th for successful take-ons, completing just 32.6 per cent of their dribbles, while only three times this season has a player successfully beaten an opponent and then taken a shot in the same move.
Opponents have tackled Villa’s players 94 times while dribbling – the third-highest figure in the league. In fact, Villa rank first in the Premier League for being dispossessed, at 107 times.
Opposition teams also make more tackles and interceptions combined against Villa than against any other team – 292 in total, which is 20 more than Chelsea, who rank third in that metric.
All of this boils down to Villa having scored the fewest goals by an Unai Emery-led side after 10 matches of a campaign in one of Europe’s big five leagues.
Their standing, both domestically and in the Europa League, is strong, and many fans would have gladly taken their respective positions at this stage. However, there are clear flaws that will need to be addressed – whether tactically or in the transfer market.
Villa, though, are not alone in falling short of being the complete package. Newcastle, Spurs, Chelsea, and even Liverpool – all clubs whose supporters expected them to compete for European places – have been far from their best in the opening quarter of the season.
How do Villa solve their goalscoring problems? Tell us here
Every day, the BirminghamLive football desk strive to deliver all manner of news, features and transfer-related stories as a part of our overall package of Aston Villa content.
Our dedicated reporter John Townley – who you can follow on X by clicking here – follows Villa home and away and offers you comprehensive coverage from matchdays, press conferences and everything that happens in between.
So much happens day to day and sometimes you can struggle to keep on top of the very latest updates as and when they occur – that’s why we have produced a daily newsletter which you can sign up to, for free, and which means you’ll have a round-up of the key stories land in your email inbox. Sign up to the Villa newsletter here.
You can also get all your favourite content from BirminghamLive’s Villa team on WhatsApp. Click here to sign up for breaking updates about the biggest stories in and around the club.
If you prefer reading our Villa stories on your phone, consider downloading the BirminghamLive app, in which you can personalise the content you see by selecting Villa as one of your designated topics. You can get it from Apple here and for Android here.
Our weekly Aston Villa podcast, Claret And Blue, is also available to watch and listen on all major streaming services. You can subscribe to the YouTube channel here, while you can access the podcast on Spotify here and via Apple here.
Watch Aston Villa vs Maccabi Tel Aviv on TNT Sports
Aston Villa continue their UEFA Europa League campaign as they host Maccabi Tel Aviv on November 6. Fans can watch the game on the TNT Sports Prime Video channel.
