Ultimately, underlying xG numbers almost always win and as the season has gone on, Villa’s results have started to line up more closely with their general performances.
Senior Villa figures have said it does not matter if they are getting points on the board and have been irritated by the suggestion they relied too much on long range goals earlier in the season.
They have scored 13 from outside the box this season, two more than Bournemouth, but well short of Chelsea’s record of 23 in 2006-07, with a conversation rate of 10.4%.
But as those goals have dried up, Villa’s defence has held up, even if it is conceding too many chances.
Only the top two have shipped fewer goals – but here, Villa are exceeding expectation too.
They have a defensive xG of 38, having faced 346 shots, but have only conceded 28 goals. It means Villa are the biggest xG overperformers in the Premier League this season.
The stats do not lie – but in the final 11 games of the domestic season, Emery needs to ensure Villa continue to buck the trend.
