Aston Villa’s attacking output: From overperformance to staleness, but McGinn’s return now key

Aston Villa’s grapple with underlying metrics has been under the microscope all season.

The wildly fluctuating campaign — a bad start preceded a remarkable 13-game winning streak which has since been flipped on its head again — has posed questions over their sustainability.

When Villa were overperforming the expected goals (xG) metrics, supporters took those observations as criticism, insisting they undermined the team’s impressive response.

Goals from distance were thrilling and frequent, but never suggested longevity. Villa’s winning run during the winter was decorated by 13 goals scored from outside the box, all from a 4.33 xG. It represented an overperformance of more than 200 per cent — higher than any team since 2019-20 across Europe’s top five domestic leagues.

Interestingly, before John McGinn’s strike against West Ham United on Sunday, the last goal from outside the box was Emiliano Buendia’s at Newcastle United two months ago. The sudden vacuum of hits from distance paying off, and consequent sudden drop in xG overperformance, coincided with the nosedive in the team’s form, resulting in three wins in the next 10 matches across all competitions.

Villa’s ridiculous finishing hot streak ended abruptly, but their underlying numbers had also regressed during that time.

Without the long-range fireworks, Villa’s stale attack has been magnified.

Prior to the win over West Ham, 35.8 per cent of Villa’s total shots came from outside the box, the fifth most behind Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, Burnley and Wolves. It is astonishing that Unai Emery managed to elevate this team into a Champions League place and then keep them there for so long having only had one regularly effective attacker in Morgan Rogers, upon whom Villa are overly reliant.

Opponents know this, hence the concerted efforts to crowd central areas. Attacking patterns are centralised around Rogers, yet the recent ponderous tempo has impeded quick passes into his feet.

Equally, a lack of talented soloists out wide to make the most of one-v-ones or transitions means output remains hinged upon Rogers.

Villa’s visible deficiencies are what made Nuno’s decision to shift from a wing-back system after Jean-Clair Todibo‘s injury in the warm-up so curious. Villa were far sharper and more penetrative in the first half against West Ham, though somewhat assisted by playing against a back four who could be dragged out of shape.

Rogers could be in danger of running on fumes. He is the only Villa player to have started every league fixture this season and, unlike his competitors for an England starting spot this summer, is rarely afforded an early substitution.

He has been wearing heavy strapping on his shoulder, which is just a precaution and nothing to be viewed as too seriously. His durability is a standout characteristic but, naturally, it is being tested.

Truthfully, Buendia replacing the England international for the final quarter of an hour at the weekend was a refreshing deviation from the norm. In Europe’s top five leagues since the start of the 2024-25 campaign, only three players — Federico Valverde, Virgil van Dijk and Aurelien Tchouameni — have racked up more minutes than Rogers.

This can be explained by Emery having no stylistic or direct replacement for the 23-year-old, nor do Villa tend to win matches comfortably. For however long contests remain close, Rogers stays on.

No top-flight side had scored fewer goals (10) in 2026 than Villa before West Ham’s visit. The reasoning behind the issue was rather straightforward. In short, Emery’s attacking options had not been putting up, as the Spaniard has lately repeated, “numbers.”

Before the second leg of the Europa League round-of-16 tie with Lille, Rogers, Buendia, Ollie Watkins, Jadon Sancho and Leon Bailey had managed just four goal involvements in their previous 45 combined games.

Villa retained the ability to move the ball upfield efficiently, as illustrated by their attacking shape in the image below. Too often, however, the end product was wasteful, or attacks merely fizzled out — as was the case in this foray upfield at Old Trafford.

Across the 96 Premier League players to have played more than 900 minutes and attempted at least 25 shots this season, Buendia sits 80th in xG produced. Rogers is slightly higher in 74th, but both have hugely overperformed, accounting for more than half of Villa’s long-range goals.

At the other end of the scale, Watkins is 19th, but has underperformed his xG by nearly two goals, demonstrating that, even though he is presented with the best chances among Villa’s front line, he is the least clinical.

Villa average 12.5 non-penalty shots per 90 minutes, serving as the exact median across top-flight clubs. Crucially, their average xG per shot (0.1) is the seventh worst in the league.

They are not fashioning high-quality chances, which is acutely felt when shots from distance and attacking overperformance are tumbling.

Villa’s offensive bluntness has exacerbated other wrinkles within Emery’s collective structure.

Cheap giveaways at Old Trafford exposed it on transition, leading to Manchester United’s first two goals. Rekindling some kind of connection in the front positions will not only re-establish Villa’s attacking threat but also give Emery the level of control in possession he desires.

In that context, Sancho’s assist for McGinn in the return leg with Lille was a pleasing change, showing a high level of composure on a counter-attack to find the right pass.

Sancho’s poise then set the tone for what was to follow. He set up McGinn again four days later, providing consecutive assists for the first time since September 2024. Such clarity of thought was mirrored in performances of attacking team-mates, including Watkins and Rogers, who have surely benefited from their captain’s return.

McGinn sets high standards in training and during games and does not suffer fools. He will demand team-mates take better care of the ball and play quicker passes.

In the first half against Lille, he pointed animatedly at Pau Torres to deliver swifter passes into his feet, before telling left-back Ian Maatsen to overlap. Emery has set McGinn the challenge of 10 goals and 10 assists every season, so he expects comparable standards from his team-mates.

McGinn’s malleability means, alongside Rogers, they can operate anywhere across the three positions behind Watkins. This can rejuvenate an attack which had been inert in his absence and adds a layer of unpredictability for opponents. McGinn wants passes crisp fired into him and, with Villa’s best passer, Youri Tielemans, coming back to full fitness, the previous wastefulness in the final third may be remedied for good.

Villa may not reach those levels of attacking overperformance again this season. This is fine, as long as those in forward positions make better decisions in telling areas, making use of Emery’s methodical build-up play, which remains effective in progressing the ball upfield.

Victory against West Ham was a good foundation to build upon after the international break, reaffirming that more sustainable ways of attacking can only be a positive.