Non-Bank Service Providers To Claim 20% Of Corporate And Investment Banking Revenues By 2030 : Analysis

The next 5  years could potentially transform corporate and investment banking (CIB) as non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) continue to expand their operations across trading, advisory, as well as lending. A report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) indicates that NBFIs will account for “20% of global CIB revenues and 30% of trading volumes by 2030.”

According to the research report from BCG, these reported gains come at a time of broader structural changes. Although the total CIB wallet is expected to grow by as much as 35% by 2030, “crossing the trillion-dollar threshold, traditional banks are under pressure from agile competitors, digital platforms, and rising geopolitical fragmentation.”

The report draws on modeling as well as key industry benchmarks to map potential future scenarios and offer a portfolio strategy for more long-term focused resilience.

NBFIs are no longer considered to be “peripheral players”—they are actually  central to how capital is “being formed, intermediated, and traded,” according to Julian Hein, a managing director and partner at BCG and coauthor of the report. They added that if banks don’t modernize fast enough, they’ll “see their relevance and returns steadily eroded.”

BCG’s analysis reveals that AI could potentially free up to 25% to 40% corporate and investment banker capacity by 2030, with similar gains now being forecaated in operations. The firms moving fastest are shifting from isolated pilots “to CEO-backed enterprise transformations anchored in four to six high-value initiatives.”

Fixed income, currencies, and commodities plus equities trading are now said to be the biggest “winners” in tech-forward environments. These businesses benefit from AI-powered automation and NBFI expansion. In contrast, corporate banking faces “steep disintermediation unless institutions upgrade platforms and reorient coverage models.”

Other key research study findings are as follows:

• Boutique investment banks could capture 20% of investment banking revenues by 2030.
• Return-on-tangible-equity (RoTE) gap between leaders and laggards may widen to 8 percentage points, primarily via scale and AI-led efficiency

The research report now encourages CIB professionals to take a portfolio approach to their strategy: focusing “50% of their efforts on maximizing potential in core businesses, 25% on scaling high RoTE adjacencies, and 25% on placing targeted bets on emerging domains.”

Top performers are now reportedly building more “scalable delivery platforms, reallocating capital to fee-driven businesses, and pursuing infrastructure partnerships with fintechs and NBFIs.”