[1/2]The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, September 26, 2023. REUTERS/Staff/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights
LONDON/HONG KONG, Sept 27 (Reuters) – Global stocks inched higher on Wednesday as investors found a footing after a sharp sell-off the previous day, while U.S. Treasury yields dipped after hitting their highest level since 2007.
Stocks and bonds have dropped in recent weeks as investors come to terms with the idea that central banks will hold interest rates “higher for longer” than previously expected, as officials try to squeeze inflation out of economies.
The Europe-wide STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) was up 0.2% on Wednesday, after falling 0.6% in the previous session in its fourth straight daily drop.
MSCI’s index of global stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) was little changed after falling 1.2% the previous day. The index has fallen 4.5% since the start of September.
Germany’s Dax index (.GDAXI) was up 0.05% while Britain’s FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was flat. In Asia overnight, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index (.N225) rose 0.18%.
At the root of the recent equity sell-off, said Jan von Gerich, chief analyst at Nordea, has been a sharp rise in bond yields as traders have cut their bets that central banks will lower interest rates any time soon.
“The latest catalyst has been the increase in bond yields, so if that stabilises then maybe the equity market stabilises as well,” he said.
“The big picture outlook is that we’re probably close to the peak (in bond yields) but the near-term momentum is still upwards.”
On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down 5 basis points to 4.507%, after touching its highest level since October 2007 on Tuesday at 4.566%. A bond’s yield rises as its price falls, and vice versa.
Also on investors’ minds is a looming U.S. government shutdown; further signs of an economic slump in China; and a recent rise in oil prices.
U.S. equity futures picked up as bond yields fell, with contracts for the benchmark S&P 500 stock index 0.43% higher. Dow Jones futures were 0.35% higher while Nasdaq futures were up 0.46%.
The Dow posted its biggest one-day percentage drop since March on Tuesday, while all three major averages ended at their lowest closing levels in well over three months.
In Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.12% higher. The index is down 3.7% so far this month.
Chinese corporate health was a focal point. Profits at China’s industrial firms fell 11.7% in the first eight months of the year, albeit a smaller decline than the 15.5% drop for the first seven months.
“The stabilising industrial profits are simply not significant enough to override concerns about risks, especially in real estate,” said Gary Ng, Asia Pacific senior economist at Natixis.
As stress spreads in the Chinese property sector, Bloomberg reported that the chairman of beleaguered Chinese property group Evergrande has been placed under police surveillance.
The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, was roughly flat at 106.2. It climbed to 106.32 earlier in the session, its highest since Nov. 30.
U.S. crude oil was 1.14% higher to $91.42 a barrel. Brent crude rose 0.85% to $94.76 per barrel.
The U.S. Senate on Tuesday took a step forward on a bipartisan bill meant to stop the government from shutting down in just five days, but the House remains hamstrung by divisions between Republican members.
Meanwhile, investors were also on the lookout for government intervention in the Japanese yen after it fell past the 149 per dollar mark on Tuesday for the first time in just under a year.
Reporting by Harry Robertson in London and Julie Zhu in Hong Kong; Editing by Jamie Freed, Edwina Gibbs and Anil D’Silva
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
WASHINGTON, Sept 26 (Reuters) – U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a four-month low in September, weighed down by persistent worries about higher prices and rising fears of a recession, though households remained generally upbeat about the labor market.
The second straight monthly decline in confidence reported by the Conference Board on Tuesday also reflected higher interest rates and concerns about the political environment.
The nation faces a potentially disruptive shutdown of the federal government on Saturday amid political wrangling. Confidence fell across all age groups, and was most pronounced among consumers with annual incomes of $50,000 or more.
“Inflation is slowing, but prices are still higher than they were before the pandemic and this is taking a toll on consumer confidence,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at
FWDBONDS in New York.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped to 103.0 this month, the lowest reading since May, from an upwardly revised 108.7 in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index easing to 105.5 from the previously reported 106.1. Consumers’ perceptions of the likelihood of a recession over the next year ticked back up.
A sharp decrease in the expectations measure accounted for the decline in confidence, which economists partially attributed to the looming government shutdown, with Congress so far failing to pass any spending bills to fund federal agency programs in the fiscal year starting on Oct. 1.
Hundreds of thousands of federal workers will be furloughed and a wide range of services, from economic data releases to nutrition benefits, suspended beginning on Sunday.
“Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board in Washington.
The cutoff date for the preliminary survey was Sept. 18. Millions of Americans will also start repaying their student loans in October and most have run down their pandemic savings.
The survey showed consumers increasingly concerned about their family finances.
The Federal Reserve last week left its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at the 5.25%-5.50% range. The U.S. central bank, however, stiffened its hawkish stance, projecting another rate hike by year end and monetary policy staying significantly tighter through 2024 than previously expected.
The Fed has hiked the policy rate by 525 basis points since March 2022.
Though consumers continued to fret over the higher cost of living, their inflation expectations over the next year remained stable and they showed no intentions of drastically pulling back on purchases of motor vehicles and other big-ticket items like television sets and refrigerators over the next six months.
Fewer, however, expected to buy a house, with the rate on the popular 30-year fixed-mortgage the highest in more than 22 years and home prices reaccelerating.
Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations were unchanged at 5.7% for the third straight month.
Consumer spending remains underpinned by a tight labor market, which is keeping wage growth elevated.
The survey’s so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents’ views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, widened to 27.3 this month compared to 26.7 in August. This measure correlates to the unemployment rate in the Labor Department’s closely followed employment report.
Stocks on Wall Street fell. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were lower.
HOUSE PRICES ACCELERATE
A separate from the Commerce Department showed new home sales plunged 8.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 675,000 units in August after racing to a 17-month high in July.
Economists had forecast new home sales, which account for a small share of U.S. home sales, falling to a rate of 700,000 units. New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, making them a leading indicator of the housing market. They, however, can be volatile on a month-to-month basis. Sales increased 5.8% on a year-on-year basis in August.
Though new home sales remain supported by a dearth of previously owned homes on the market, the resurgence in mortgage rates is reducing affordability for prospective home buyers.
The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage vaulted above 7% in August and climbed to an average of 7.19% last week, the highest since July 2001, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. Mortgage rates are rising in tandem with U.S. Treasury yields, which have surged on worries that soaring oil prices could hamper the Fed’s fight against inflation.
“While we expect higher rates to hurt new home sales, we think they will be more resilient than existing home sales as builders seem willing to scale up their use of incentives to motivate sales,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.
A third report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed annual home price growth quickened for a second straight month in July, largely reflecting the tight supply in the market for previously owned homes. House prices jumped 4.6% on a year-over-year basis in July after rising 3.2% in June. Prices shot up 0.8% month-on-month after advancing 0.4% in June.
The resurgence in house prices was seen feeding through to higher inflation, likely giving the Fed cover to maintain its hawkish posture for some time.
“The Fed will see the reacceleration of house prices as a reason to keep interest rates higher for longer,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank in Dallas. “Renting households are seeing some relief in new lease prices, but since two thirds of Americans are homeowners, the Fed cannot afford to look past house prices’ influence on the cost of living.”
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Additional reporting by Amina Niasse; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Mike Dolan
A renewed surge in long-term Treasury yields is stifling world markets yet again as Federal Reserve officials hang tough on one more rate rise, some $134 billion of new government debt sales hit this week and a government shutdown looms.
The yield spike has supercharged the U.S. dollar worldwide – both a reflection and aggravator of mounting financial stress far and wide.
Despite wariness of Bank of Japan intervention, the dollar/yen exchange rate hit its highest for the year on Tuesday – as did the dollar’s DXY (.DXY) index and the dollar’s rate against the South Korea’s won . Sterling hit a 6-month low.
Treasury tremors continue to reverberate from last week’s upgraded Fed forecasts, its insistence on signalling one more rate rise in the current tightening cycle and an uncompromising ‘higher-for-longer’ mantra.
Short term Fed futures haven’t moved much. All the action is in longer-dated U.S. Treasuries, which may now be repricing the economy’s resilience over multiple years and more persistent inflation pressures.
Ten-year Treasury yields , which have added a whopping 25 basis points in just a week, hit another 16-year high at 4.5660% early on Tuesday. As Deutsche Bank notes, this is historically significant territory as the average of the 10-year yield going back to 1799 is around 4.50%.
Thirty-year bond yields , meantime, have jumped over 30bp in a week to a 12-year high of 4.6840%.
And as an indication of how the long-term sustainable interest rate structure as whole is being re-thought, the 10-year real, inflation-adjusted yield has also leaped 26bp to 2.20% – its highest since 2009.
Significantly, this is shifting the deeply-inverted 2-to-10 year yield gap – which has for more than a year indicated recession ahead but which now looks to be closing that negative spread to its smallest since May.
The latest wobble – which has seen exchange-traded funds in U.S. Treasuries deepen year-to-date losses to more than 6% and losses over three years to more than 20% – comes as another heavy supply of new paper goes up for auction this week.
The Treasury sells $48 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $49 billion in five-year paper on Wednesday and $37 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday.
A government shutdown from this weekend is still looming with no budget deal in Congress yet to avert it and Moody’s warning of sovereign credit rating implications.
The Fed seems in no mood to calm the horses.
Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Monday the Fed probably needs to raise borrowing rates further.
“If the economy is fundamentally much stronger than we realized, on the margin, that would tell me rates probably have to go a little bit higher, and then be held higher for longer to cool things off,” Said Kashkari.
Even a typically more dovish Chicago Fed boss Austan Goolsbee sounded hawkish. “The risk of inflation staying higher than where we want it is the bigger risk,” he said, adding the Fed would now have to “play by ear” in conducting policy.
Private sector bankers are starting to brace for the worst, with JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon reported overnight as warning: “I am not sure if the world is prepared for 7% (Fed rates).”
Even though the European Central Bank seems shier of even higher rates, the higher-for-longer message there too is clear. ECB chief Christine Lagarde said on Monday the central bank can meet its 2% inflation target if record high rates are maintained for “a sufficiently long duration.”
In a thin data diary on Monday, the Dallas Fed’s September manufacturing survey showed a deterioration of activity there this month. The Chicago Fed’s national business poll for August also fell.
And a retreat in energy prices would have soothed some inflation worries, with U.S. crude falling back to $88 per barrel for the first time in almost two weeks,
Nationwide consumer confidence tops the slate on Tuesday.
Despite a late rally in Wall St stocks on Monday, futures are back about 0.5% in the red – as were bourses in Asia and Europe as the end of the third quarter hoves into view on Friday.
China Evergrande (3333.HK) shares slid for a second day, dropping as much as 8% after a unit of the embattled property developer missed an onshore bond repayment.
There was no sign of a breakthrough in the widening U.S. autoworkers labor dispute, seen as inflationary by some due to potential supply outages.
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Tuesday:
* US Sept consumer confidence, US Aug new home sales, July house prices, Richmond Fed Sept business survey, Dallas Fed Sept service sector survey, Philadelphia Fed Sept services survey
* Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives pre-recorded remarks to Washington conference
* U.S. Treasury auctions $48 billion of 2-year notes
* U.S. corporate earnings: Costco, Cintas
Reporting by Mike Dolan; Editing by Christina Fincher
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
WASHINGTON, Sept 21 (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to an eight-month low last week, pointing to persistent labor market tightness even as job growth is cooling.
The report from the Labor Department on Thursday also showed unemployment rolls in early September were the smallest since January. It was published a day after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but stiffened its hawkish stance, with a further rate increase projected by the end of the year and monetary policy to be kept significantly tighter through 2024 than previously expected.
“This economy is just not showing any sign of slowing down which hints that inflation will not be coming back down to target,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. “The Fed was wise to keep another interest rate hike in their back pockets just in case, and it now looks like another rate hike is warranted.”
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 201,000 for the week ended Sept. 16, the lowest level since January. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week. Claims are in the lower end of their 194,000-265,000 range for this year.
Claims could, however, increase in the coming weeks as a partial strike by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union forces automobile manufacturers to temporarily lay off workers because of shortages of some materials.
The UAW last week launched a targeted strike against Ford (F.N), GM (GM.N) and Stellantis (STLAM.MI), impacting one assembly plant at each company. It has threatened to broaden the work stoppages, which for now only involve about 12,700 of the affected 146,000 UAW members.
Though striking workers are not eligible for unemployment benefits, the walkout has snarled supply chains.
Ford has furloughed 600 workers who are not on strike, while GM expected to halt operations at its Kansas car plant, affecting 2,000 workers. Chrysler parent Stellantis said it would temporarily lay off 68 employees in Ohio and expects to furlough another 300 workers in Indiana.
Unadjusted claims rose by only 67 to 175,661 last week. There were notable declines in filings in Indiana and California, which mostly offset sizeable increases in South Carolina, New York and Georgia.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that “the labor market remains tight, but supply and demand conditions continue to come into better balance.”
Employment growth has been slowing and job openings falling. Labor market resilience is propping up the economy even as recession fears linger. The leading indicator, a gauge of future U.S. economic activity, fell 0.4% in August after dropping 0.3% in July, the Conference Board said in a second report on Thursday.
It has dropped for 17 straight months. Since March 2022, the U.S. central bank has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range.
The claims data together with the Fed’s hawkish stance pushed stocks on Wall street lower. The dollar gained versus a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices fell, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond rising to a nearly 16-year high.
HOUSING FALTERING
The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed business establishments for the nonfarm payrolls component of September’s employment report.
The strike is unlikely to have an impact on payrolls as it started towards the end of the survey week. Workers most likely received pay for that week. Claims fell between the August and September survey period.
Data next week on the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, will offer more clues on the state of the labor market in September.
The so-called continuing claims declined 21,000 to 1.662 million during the week ending Sept. 9, also the lowest level since January, the claims report showed. That suggests laid-off workers are quickly finding employment.
While the labor market remains unbowed, the housing market is faltering after showing signs of stabilizing earlier this year as mortgage rates resume their upward trend in tandem with the 10-year Treasury note, which has spiked on worries soaring oil prices could hamper the Fed’s fight against inflation.
Existing home sales slipped 0.7% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.04 million units, the National Association of Realtors said in a third report.
Existing home sales are counted at the closing of a contract. Last month’s sales likely reflected contracts signed in July, before the recent run-up in mortgage rates, which lifted the rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage above 7%.
Home sales last month were restrained by persistently tight supply, with inventory falling 14.1% from a year earlier to 1.1 million, the lowest on record for any August.
As a result, the median house price accelerated 3.9% from a year earlier to $407,100, the fourth-highest reading. It hit a record $413,000 in June 2022.
“The prospects for improved sales in the coming months look bleak,” said Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide in Columbus, Ohio. “2023 could end in a whimper for the real estate sector as any substantial pull-back in rates is likely far off into 2024.”
News on manufacturing was downbeat. Manufacturing together with housing have borne the brunt of the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy tightening.
A fourth report from the Philadelphia Fed showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region slumped in September. Firms in the region that covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware reported decreases in new orders and shipments. They continued to report a decline in employment.
The Philadelphia Fed’s business conditions index fell to -13.5 this month from 12.0 in August. It was the index’s 14th negative reading in the past 16 months.
“Softer demand for goods and higher borrowing costs are hurdles for activity,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York. “But re-shoring of supply chains, infrastructure projects and a stabilization in demand could provide support to manufacturing output over time.”
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Vehicles drive among the buildings during the evening rush hour in Beijing’s central business area, China November 21, 2018. REUTERS/Jason Lee/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights
BEIJING, Sept 20 (Reuters) – China should step up policy support for the economy while promoting reforms to help achieve the annual growth target of around 5%, Yi Gang, former governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), said in remarks published on Wednesday.
China’s factory output and retail sales grew at a faster pace in August, but tumbling property investment threatens to undercut a flurry of support steps that are showing signs of stabilising parts of the wobbly economy.
“We should appropriately increase macroeconomic policy adjustments, effectively support the expansion of domestic demand and promote a virtuous economic cycle,” state media quoted Yi, deputy head of the economic committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), as saying.
That will help China achieve the 2023 growth target of around 5%, Yi said.
The government should move to boost the weak confidence of private firms and tackle local government debt risks that have hampered local authorities’ ability to support growth, Yi said.
“In the long term, affected by factors such as the slowdown in urbanisation and the population aging, the overall demand for home purchases may fall to a new level,” Yi said.
The central bank should use its structural policy tools to support “rigid and improved housing demand”, he said.
Yi also called for reforms of China’s system on residence permits, or “hukou”, and improve social welfare for millions of migrant workers who had entered cities, which will help boost consumption.
Reporting by Kevin Yao; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
TOKYO, Sept 19 (Reuters) – Asian shares sank on Tuesday as worries about the Chinese property sector weighed on markets from Hong Kong to Australia, while Japanese investors sold chip stocks on their return from a holiday-extended weekend.
Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields hovered near 16-year peaks and the dollar held close to six-month highs as traders braced for a Federal Reserve rate decision on Wednesday, in a week that also sees policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and Bank of England, among others.
Crude oil continued its rally amid tightening supply, stoking worries about stagflation.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) slipped 0.3%.
Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) tumbled 1.1% under the weight of big losses for chip-related stocks including Tokyo Electron (8035.T) and Advantest (6857.T).
Japanese markets were closed Monday, when Asian tech stocks sold off following a Reuters report that TSMC (2330.TW) had asked its major vendors to delay deliveries.
That stock sank 0.4% on Tuesday, flipping from an earlier gain of as much as 0.6%. It tumbled 3.2% on Monday.
John Pearce, CIO at Unisuper, called the TSMC news “surprising.”
“The one thing you were almost certain of was that demand for semiconductors was only one way,” he said.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (.HSI) declined 0.1%, with a subindex of tech stocks (.HSTECH) sliding 0.6%. An index of mainland blue chips (.CSI300) fell 0.3%.
Chinese property stocks were volatile, with a subindex of Hang Seng developers (.HSMPI) dropping as much as 1.2% at one point, before flipping to positive territory around lunchtime, although it was last off 0.4%.
Australia’s stock benchmark (.AXJO) dropped 0.4%, sagging under the weight of mining stocks (.AXMM) amid pessimism over Chinese demand.
Providing some rays of hope, though, Country Garden (2007.HK) won approval from creditors to extend repayment on another onshore bond, the last in the batch of eight bonds it has been seeking extensions for, sources said.
Peer Sunac China Holdings (1918.HK) got creditor approval for its $9 billion offshore debt restructuring plan, the first green light of a debt overhaul by a major Chinese developer.
Weakness in Asian equities weighed on U.S. stock futures , which pointed 0.1% lower. Pan-European Stoxx 50 futures were flat.
Currency markets were subdued, with the U.S. dollar index – which measures the currency against six major peers – rising 0.09% to 105.17, edging back toward last week’s six-month peak of 105.43.
The dollar added 0.1% to 147.75 yen , bringing it closer to last week’s 10-month top of 147.95.
The euro eased 0.1% to $1.0679.
Ten-year yields were little changed at just above 4.31%, holding close to the 4.366% level reached on Aug. 22, which was the highest since 2007.
“You can’t blame people for keeping to the sidelines for now,” with the Fed headlining a parade of central bank meetings this week, Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, wrote in a note.
“Given the variability in outcomes, there will inevitably be crosscurrents in the markets,” Rodda said. “Price action could be choppy, with risk needing to be managed more carefully.”
Traders are all but certain the Fed will leave rates steady again at the conclusion of a two-day meeting that begins later Tuesday, but are split on the chances on another quarter-point increase by year-end.
Fed officials will also release their latest predictions on the economy and where rates are likely to be over the coming quarters.
Meanwhile, oil prices rose in early trade on Tuesday for the fourth consecutive session, as weak shale output in the U.S. spurred further concerns about a supply deficit stemming from extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 99 cents, or 1.1%, to $92.47, while global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose 58 cents, or 0.61%, to $95.01 a barrel.
“Given how supply-constrained energy markets are likely to become, especially amidst harsher weather approaching the end of the year, higher oil prices are both an upside risk to inflation and a downside risk to growth,” Capital.com’s Rodda said.
“Markets that don’t export energy and suffer from energy insecurity could underperform.”
Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Additional reporting by Lewis Jackson; Editing by Stephen Coates
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People walk along the beach on the Suffolk coast as the Sizewell B nuclear power station can be seen on the horizon, near Southwold, Britain, January 31, 2019. REUTERS/Russell Boyce Acquire Licensing Rights
LONDON, Sept 18 (Reuters) – Britain on Monday opened the search for private investment in the Sizewell C nuclear project, inviting potential investors to register their interest.
The building of the plant by French energy giant EDF in southeast England, capable of producing around 3.2 gigawatts of electricity or enough to power around 6 million homes, was approved in July 2022.
“The government, the Sizewell C Company and EDF, the project’s lead developer, are looking for companies with substantial experience in the delivery of major infrastructure projects,” a statement from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said.
The British government announced last year that it would support Sizewell C with around 700 million pounds ($895 million) while taking a 50% stake during its development phase.
“The launch of the formal equity raise opens another exciting phase for the project, following a positive response from investors during market testing,” said Sizewell C Company Joint Managing Director, Julia Pyke.
Reporting by Kylie MacLellan, writing by William James
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Sept 18 (Reuters) – Growth in India’s commercial vehicle sales volume will slow down to low-to-mid-single digits due to rising ownership costs, Fitch Ratings said in a report on Monday.
The ratings agency said increasing regulatory requirements, elevated inflation and high interest rates have pushed up the ownership costs, thereby weighing on purchase decisions.
There was a 34% growth in commercial vehicle sales at nearly 962,000 units in the financial year 2023, up from the 569,000 units sold in fiscal year 2020, according to data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM).
“The 3.3% Y/Y drop in commercial vehicle wholesale volume in the second quarter of FY23 marked the first yearly decline since March 2020,” Fitch said, adding that this was a result of the purchases made ahead of the price hikes by automakers and vehicle availability issues after the adoption of new emission norms.
The latest rules require the measurement of emissions in real time, leading to a near-5% rise in prices of commercial vehicles from April 2023.
“We expect faster volume for medium and heavy commercial vehicles than for light commercial vehicles, due to India’s rising infrastructure activities and the vulnerability of light commercial vehicles to potentially weaker rural demand due to uneven rainfall,” Fitch wrote in the report.
Reporting by Ashna Teresa Britto; Editing by Sohini Goswami
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
A woman walks past a screen displaying the Hang Seng Index at Central district, in Hong Kong, China March 21, 2023. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights
SYDNEY, Sept 18 (Reuters) – Asian shares fell and the dollar was firm on Monday as investors looked ahead to policy meetings from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and other central banks this week.
Europe is set for a subdued open, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures off 0.1%. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.2% while Nasdaq futures edged up 0.1%.
Oil prices hit fresh 10-month peaks, further stoking inflationary pressures. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 0.8% to $91.52, their highest level since November, while Brent crude futures rose 0.7% to $94.55 per barrel.
In Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.7%. Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) is closed for a public holiday.
Technology shares in the region retreated, with Taiwan’s TSMC (2330.TW), the world’s top contract chipmaker, falling 3% after Reuters reported that it has told its major suppliers to delay the delivery of high-end chipmaking equipment
In China, better-than-expected factory output and retail sales in the world’s second largest economy have aided Chinese bluechips (.CSI300) which were up 0.4%.
But property sector woes dragged Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (.HSI) 1% lower.
Zhongrong International Trust, which has exposure to Chinese property developers, said over the weekend it was unable to make payments on some trust products on time.
“Despite the encouraging sign of stabilization, the property market continues to be the missing puzzle piece in the economic picture,” said Tommy Xie, head of Greater China Research at OCBC Bank.
“The on-the-ground feedback indicates a rise in property viewing activities; however, most prospective buyers are not in a hurry to finalize deals due to the increasing supply of apartments post relaxation.”
Shares in embattled China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) fell as much as 25% after police in southern China detained some staff at its wealth management unit, though they later pared losses to be down 1.6%.
This week, global central banks will take centre stage, with five of those overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies holding rate-setting meetings. A swathe of emerging market central banks will also hold meetings.
Markets are fully priced for a second straight pause from the Fed on Wednesday, with its targeted range expected to be unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%, so the focus will be on the updated economic and rates projections. They see about 80 basis points of cuts next year.
“In theory, the FOMC meeting should be a low-volatility affair, but it is a risk that needs to be managed,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.
Weston added that if the Fed revises up its rate projections for 2024, that would see rate cuts being priced out, resulting in renewed interest in the U.S. dollar and downward pressure on global shares.
On Thursday, Bank of England is tipped to hike for the 15th time and take benchmark borrowing costs to 5.5%.
Bank of Japan is the key risk event on Friday. Markets are looking for any signs that the BOJ could be moving away from its ultra-loose policy faster than previously thought, after recent comments by Governor Kazuo Ueda sent yields much higher.
Last Friday, Wall Street ended sharply lower as U.S. industrial labour action weighed on auto shares. Rising Treasury yields also pressured Amazon (AMZN.O) and other megacap growth companies.
Cash Treasuries were not traded in Asia with Tokyo shut. Treasury yields edged higher on Friday, with the two-year above the 5% threshold.
In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar was still standing strong near its six-month top at 105.25 against a basket of major currencies.
The euro gained 0.1% to $1.0667, after slumping to a 3-1/2 month low of $1.0632 last week as the European Central Bank signalled its rate hikes could be over.
The price of gold was 0.2% higher at $1,928.13 per ounce.
Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Edwina Gibbs
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Men stand near residential buildings in Beijing, China April 14, 2022. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights
BEIJING, Sept 15 (Reuters) – A slump in China’s property sector worsened in August, with deepening falls in new home prices, property investment and sales, despite a recent flurry of support measures, adding pressure to the world’s second-largest economy.
New home prices fell at the fastest pace in 10 months in August, down 0.3% month-on-month after a 0.2% decline in July, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. Prices were down 0.1% from a year earlier, after a 0.1% decline in July.
For August, property investment fell for the 18th straight month, down 19.1% year-on-year from a 17.8% slump the previous month, separate data showed on Friday. Home sales are down for the 26th consecutive month, according to Reuters calculations based on the data.
China has in recent weeks delivered a raft of measures to boost home buying sentiment, including easing some borrowing rules, and relaxing home purchasing curbs in some cities.
These policies have given major cities like Beijing a tiny boost in new home sales, but some worry they might be short-lived and could potentially dry up demand in smaller cities.
China’s broader economy is showing signs of stabilisation with economic figures showing quickening growth in industrial output and retail sales.
However, analysts say a series of supportive policies have yet to firm up the crisis-hit property sector with major Chinese developers still fighting to avoid default.
“We are still hopeful that housing sales would stage small sequential pickups in the coming months, but stimulus will ultimately stop short of reflating the sector,” said Louise Loo, China economist at Oxford Economics.
China’s central bank said on Thursday it would cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves, its second such easing this year.
“The more material risks in the near-term come from some property developers and financial institutions, and a small RRR cut could do very little to help,” said Nomura in a research note on Friday.
Around 30 cities eased home purchase curbs and relaxed mortgage rules for buyers in recent weeks but analysts say Beijing may have to introduce more aggressive property easing measures to deliver a real recovery.
Authorities may also need to lift almost all restrictions on home transactions, invest more in the urban renovation programme, speed up infrastructure spending and restructure local government debt, said Nomura.
Moody’s on Thursday cut China’s property sector outlook to negative from stable, citing economic growth challenges, which the rating’s agency said will dampen sales despite government support.
China’s property crisis is seen as one of the biggest stumbling blocks to a sustainable economic recovery, with rising risks of default among private developers threatening to imperil the country’s financial and economic stability.
Reporting by Liangping Gao, Ella Cao and Ryan Woo
Editing by Sam Holmes
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