North Carolina’s real estate market has been growing in recent years due to its beautiful shorelines and mountains, making it a desirable place to live for many people. Considering the competitive nature of the market, the slight decrease in homes sold above list price, and the increase in homes with price drops, it leans towards a more balanced market.
However, the sale-to-list price ratio remaining high indicates that sellers still have strong negotiation power. The housing market in North Carolina appears resilient, with a positive outlook given the increase in home prices and a relatively stable sales-to-list price ratio. The growing number of newly listed homes also suggests continued activity in the market.
North Carolina Housing Market Overview
How is the Housing Market Doing Currently?
In January 2024, the North Carolina housing market displayed both positive and challenging trends. According to Redfin, home prices experienced a notable increase, rising by 4.8% compared to the previous year, with a median price of $353,300. However, the number of homes sold saw a slight decline, down 0.41% year over year, totaling 8,524 homes sold compared to 8,560 in January of the previous year.
The median days on the market decreased to 49 days, indicating a quicker turnaround for property sales compared to the previous year.
How Competitive is the North Carolina Market?
Despite the overall decrease in the number of homes sold, the market remained competitive, with 18.7% of homes selling above their list price in January 2024. This figure, however, reflects a 1.9% decrease from the previous year. On the flip side, 27.7% of homes experienced price drops, marking an increase of 3.9% from January last year.
The sale-to-list price ratio reached 97.8%, showing a 0.1% improvement year over year, indicating that homes were generally selling close to their listing prices.
Are There Enough Homes for Sale in North Carolina to Meet Buyer Demand?
As of January 2024, there were 38,770 homes for sale in North Carolina, representing a modest 0.2% increase compared to the previous year. The number of newly listed homes, however, experienced a more significant uptick, rising by 10.1% year over year to 11,879. The average months of supply stood at 3 months, indicating a balanced market with a slight decrease from the previous year.
Top 10 Metros in North Carolina with the Fastest Growing Sales Price
- Hendersonville, NC: 44.1%
- Elizabeth City, NC: 38.7%
- Carolina Beach, NC: 31.1%
- Mint Hill, NC: 26.6%
- Asheboro, NC: 22.0%
- Monroe, NC: 20.9%
- Statesville, NC: 20.0%
- Burlington, NC: 17.5%
- Shelby, NC: 17.4%
- Fayetteville, NC: 17.3%
These metros showcase the dynamic growth in sales prices, providing valuable insights into the varied real estate landscapes across different regions in North Carolina.
North Carolina Housing Market Forecast for 2024 and 2025
According to Zillow, as of January 31, 2024, the average home value in North Carolina stands at $318,266, reflecting a 3.7% increase over the past year. The speed at which homes are going pending is noteworthy, with an average of 22 days in the market.
Housing Metrics Explained:
For Sale Inventory:
At the end of January 2024, there were 29,848 homes available for sale in North Carolina. This inventory plays a pivotal role in shaping the dynamics of the real estate market.
New Listings:
During the same period, 7,871 new listings entered the market, showcasing the ongoing activity and potential opportunities for buyers and sellers alike.
Median Sale to List Ratio (December 31, 2023):
The 0.992 median sale to list ratio as of December 31, 2023, provides insights into the pricing dynamics, indicating a close alignment between listing and sale prices.
Median Sale Price (December 31, 2023):
The median sale price in North Carolina, recorded at $305,667 as of December 31, 2023, reflects the midpoint value in the housing market, offering a benchmark for potential buyers and sellers.
Median List Price (January 31, 2024):
As of January 31, 2024, the median list price for homes in North Carolina is $356,667. This figure serves as a key indicator for those contemplating listing their properties.
Percent of Sales Over List Price (December 31, 2023):
Examining the market dynamics, 28.0% of sales in North Carolina surpassed the list price as of December 31, 2023, reflecting the competitive nature of certain segments.
Percent of Sales Under List Price (December 31, 2023):
Conversely, 54.3% of sales in the same period occurred under the list price, providing a nuanced perspective on negotiation trends and buyer behavior in the market.
Are Home Prices Dropping in North Carolina?
As of the latest available data, there is no indication of a widespread drop in home prices in North Carolina. The overall trend reveals a 3.7% increase in the average home value over the past year, pointing towards a market that is experiencing appreciation rather than depreciation. It’s essential to monitor specific regions and stay informed about local market dynamics, as variations can occur at a more granular level.
Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in North Carolina?
The decision of whether it’s a good time to buy a house depends on various individual factors, including personal financial circumstances, long-term goals, and specific preferences. With the current market conditions, including a 3.7% increase in average home values over the past year, and relatively swift transactions with homes going pending in 22 days, buyers may find opportunities in certain areas. However, it’s crucial to conduct thorough research, consider local market dynamics, and potentially consult with real estate professionals to make an informed decision based on individual needs and priorities.
Top 10 Areas in NC Expected to See the Highest Increases in Home Prices
Sanford, NC (MSA):
- Base Date: 31-01-2024
- Expected Increase by 29-02-2024: 0.3%
- Expected Increase by 30-04-2024: 1.8%
- Anticipated Increase by 31-01-2025: 8.4%
Sanford emerges as a promising area within the state, with a gradual acceleration in home prices throughout the year. The projected increase by 31-01-2025 suggests a notable surge in demand and desirability within this Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA).
Wilson, NC (MSA):
- Base Date: 31-01-2024
- Expected Increase by 29-02-2024: 0.2%
- Expected Increase by 30-04-2024: 1.7%
- Anticipated Increase by 31-01-2025: 7.5%
Wilson, as another Metropolitan Statistical Area, showcases a positive trajectory in home price increases. The projected growth by 31-01-2025 indicates a substantial uptick, making it an area to watch for those interested in real estate investments.
Lumberton, NC (MSA):
- Base Date: 31-01-2024
- Expected Increase by 29-02-2024: 0.1%
- Expected Increase by 30-04-2024: 2.0%
- Anticipated Increase by 31-01-2025: 7.2%
Lumberton, situated within the Metropolitan Statistical Area classification, displays a steady growth pattern in home prices. The projected increase by 31-01-2025 signifies sustained demand and market appreciation within this region.
Boone, NC (MSA):
- Base Date: 31-01-2024
- Expected Increase by 29-02-2024: 0.1%
- Expected Increase by 30-04-2024: 1.1%
- Anticipated Increase by 31-01-2025: 7.2%
Boone, a part of the Metropolitan Statistical Area category, demonstrates a modest yet consistent rise in home prices. The projected growth by 31-01-2025 indicates sustained interest and potential opportunities for those considering real estate transactions in this area.
Albemarle, NC (MSA):
- Base Date: 31-01-2024
- Expected Increase by 29-02-2024: 0.2%
- Expected Increase by 30-04-2024: 1.4%
- Anticipated Increase by 31-01-2025: 7.1%
Albemarle, within the Metropolitan Statistical Area framework, exhibits a positive trajectory in home price increases. The projected growth by 31-01-2025 underscores the area’s potential for real estate appreciation and investment.
Kill Devil Hills, NC (MSA):
- Base Date: 31-01-2024
- Expected Increase by 29-02-2024: 0.4%
- Expected Increase by 30-04-2024: 1.9%
- Anticipated Increase by 31-01-2025: 7.1%
Kill Devil Hills, located within the Metropolitan Statistical Area, showcases a positive trend in home price increases. The projections highlight a notable surge in demand, making it a potential hotspot for real estate activity throughout 2024.
Laurinburg, NC (MSA):
- Base Date: 31-01-2024
- Expected Increase by 29-02-2024: -0.4%
- Expected Increase by 30-04-2024: 1.0%
- Anticipated Increase by 31-01-2025: 7.0%
Laurinburg, part of the Metropolitan Statistical Area, displays a unique projection with a slight decrease in home prices by 29-02-2024. However, a subsequent positive trajectory is expected, pointing towards a resilient real estate market in the long run.
Brevard, NC (MSA):
- Base Date: 31-01-2024
- Expected Increase by 29-02-2024: 0%
- Expected Increase by 30-04-2024: 0.9%
- Anticipated Increase by 31-01-2025: 7.0%
Brevard, situated in the Metropolitan Statistical Area, reflects a stable outlook with no change in home prices by 29-02-2024. However, a subsequent increase is anticipated, showcasing a steady and positive trajectory in the real estate market.
Rocky Mount, NC (MSA):
- Base Date: 31-01-2024
- Expected Increase by 29-02-2024: 0.2%
- Expected Increase by 30-04-2024: 1.7%
- Anticipated Increase by 31-01-2025: 6.9%
Rocky Mount, within the Metropolitan Statistical Area category, projects a positive trajectory in home price increases. The expected growth indicates sustained demand and market appreciation, making it an area of interest for potential real estate transactions.
Fayetteville, NC (MSA):
- Base Date: 31-01-2024
- Expected Increase by 29-02-2024: 0.4%
- Expected Increase by 30-04-2024: 1.7%
- Anticipated Increase by 31-01-2025: 6.8%
Fayetteville, situated in the Metropolitan Statistical Area, demonstrates a positive trend in home price increases. The projections suggest a robust real estate market, attracting potential buyers and investors throughout 2024.
Will The North Carolina Housing Market Crash?
As of now, there is no imminent sign of a housing market crash in North Carolina. The steady growth in average home values, coupled with positive projections for specific areas, suggests a resilient market. However, real estate is influenced by various factors, including economic conditions and unforeseen events. Continuous monitoring and staying informed about market trends are essential for a comprehensive understanding of the real estate landscape and its potential future developments.
Market Fundamentals
Several key factors contribute to the current stability of the North Carolina housing market:
- Economic Strength: North Carolina boasts a diverse and growing economy. Major industries such as technology, healthcare, finance, and manufacturing have a strong presence in the state. This economic diversity provides a solid foundation for sustained housing demand.
- Population Growth: The state continues to attract a steady stream of newcomers due to its job opportunities, quality of life, and relatively affordable cost of living compared to other desirable areas. This population growth supports housing demand.
- Supply and Demand Balance: While some areas may experience housing shortages, the overall supply and demand balance in North Carolina remains relatively stable. This equilibrium helps prevent dramatic price fluctuations that could trigger a crash.
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North Carolina Housing Supply Graph
Data Sources:
- https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
- https://www.zillow.com/nc/home-values/
- https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/nc/
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUNC#
- https://www.redfin.com/state/North-Carolina/housing-market
- https://www.rent.com/research/average-rent-price-report/
- https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/housing-market/north-carolina/
- https://www.propeterra.com/resource-center/charlotte-north-carolina-banking
- https://today.yougov.com/topics/travel/articles-reports/2021/04/13/us-states-ranked-best-worst-according-americans
