Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.8% in January 2024 compared with January 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by -0.1% in January 2024 compared with December 2023 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will remain unchanged from January 2024 to February 2024 and increase by 2.6% on a year-over-year basis from January 2024 to January 2025.
Year-over-year home price gains reached the highest rate in a year in January, but growth is expected to begin slowing in the coming months, falling to 2.6% by early 2025. Both higher mortgage rates and inventory shortages are exacerbating the nation’s long-running housing affordability problem, which particularly affects areas of the country where wages tend to be lower. Despite affordability issues, many younger Americans are finding a path to homeownership, with millennials accounting for more than half of home purchase applications between 2020 and 2023. Meanwhile, baby boomers who already have significant financial reserves can pay for homes entirely in cash, which further increases challenges for other buyers.
“U.S. annual home price growth strengthened to 5.8% in January 2024. And while the acceleration continues to reflect the residual impact of strong appreciation in early 2023, the annual rate of growth is expected to taper off in coming months. Home prices further increased in late 2023 despite high mortgage rates, which surged to the highest level since the beginning of the millennium. But metro areas that have struggled with the impact of higher rates continue to see downward movement on home prices. Generally, pressures from higher mortgage rates tend to occur in markets where the higher cost of homeownership pushes against the affordability ceiling.”
Dr. Selma Hepp
– Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – January 2024
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Nationally, home prices increased by 5.8% year over year in January. No states saw home price declines. The states with the highest increases year over year were Rhode Island (13.2%), New Jersey (11.6%) and Connecticut (11%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Below is a look at home price changes in 10 select large U.S. metros in January, with Miami posting the highest gain at 10.2% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA (70%-plus probability) is at a very high risk of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL; Salt Lake City, UT; Ocala, FL and Ogden-Clearfield, UT are also at very high risk for price declines.
Summary
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
Source: CoreLogic
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About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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