Defeat seemed imminent: surveys had writ, and having writ, had moved on. However, in India’s dynamic political landscape, where with the right narrative spin, political fortunes can reverse in the blink of an eye, giving up is not an option. And, so, Suhel Pratap Singh, a political consultant — who, over the last decade has worked with several political parties, including the Indian National Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) — was charged with coming up with a winning strategy and leading a “war room” in a “backward” constituency in Rajasthan.
The constituency assigned to him might have been “backward” by all accounts and indices, but the electioneering process was as avant-garde as could be. “When I reached the location, I was flabbergasted. There was no hotel or building anywhere in sight, just a tabela (cow shed). I called the liaisons, sure I had been given the wrong address, but, to my surprise, a couple of minutes later, the client (candidate) showed up on the spot. We had a brief chat about the constituency and bafflingly started walking in the direction of the tabela. But, as soon as we stepped inside the cow shelter, I realised, it indeed was the war room, with a big hall with a sitting capacity of 70 people, equipped with laptops and PCs, and two dedicated conference rooms for internal meetings,” recalls Suhel.
Suhel, who works for Ground Zero, a political consultancy firm currently representing the Congress party in Maharashtra and Odisha, is among the thousands of savvy professionals — engineers, MBAs, lawyers, journalists and psephologists among others — who have proliferated the burgeoning, lucrative, and “recession-proof” political consultancy business over the last decade.
The political consultancy industry has certainly come a long way since the last decade, when hundreds of Indian professionals from top schools and companies came together to form Citizens for Accountable Governance (CAG), which ran Narendra Modi’s 2014 Lok Sabha election campaign, MBA-style, paving way for more players to enter the field. In fact, the original CAG team had first-mover advantage, with many members building their own teams — Prashant Kishore formed I-PAC, Sunil Kanugolu started Mindshare Analytics and Inclusive Minds, Himanshu Singh set up the Association of Brilliant Minds, and Robbin Sharrma started Showtime Consulting. Now, many of their associates too have started their own political consulting ventures.
“By the time of the 2014 national election, the industry was reported to be worth $40-$47 million. Between 2014 and 2018, industry specialists approximated that the number of firms in this market had at least doubled,” writes Anuradha Sajjanhar in her 2021 paper ‘The Emergence of Political Consulting’ for The Economic and Political Weekly.
Abjit Singh, a political strategist, who has worked with the Congress, AAP, YSRCP, Shiv Sena, and some independent leaders, says, “When I entered the field in 2016, few people were working as consultants. Back then, I used to wonder what my Plan B would be, should political consulting not work out as a profession. But, I’m still here, and the consultancy business has only grown in leaps and bounds. In fact, it was one of the few industries that continued to register growth during the Covid pandemic.”
Not only Lok Sabha or assembly elections, the work of political consultancies has also trickled down to the panchayat level.
There certainly is plenty of business to go-around as now, it is not just major parties who are hiring political consultancies, but also sitting MPs and MLAs hoping for another term in office, those aspiring for a party ticket or intending to contest as Independents. While the bigger firms have transformed into in-house consultancies for major political parties, catering to national leaders, smaller consultancies often cater to state-level or regional leaders, and pitch to political parties on a project-to-project basis.
On the mushrooming of smaller consultancies, Divesh Garg, who works with I-PAC, says, “Most of the new and up-coming consultancies are run by I-PAC graduates. Ultimately, it all boils down to having the client’s trust. Our clients trust us to win them the election, and any political consultancy, big or small, will only stay in business so long as it has the client’s trust.”
While these strategists provide a constellation of services (political intelligence and strategy, research, narrative, and campaign designing, social media management, candidate management etc), Shrivastav says many have developed specialisations over time — Jarvis and Matrix Intelligence are known for their social media management, Jansampark and JanSoch for campaign management, and Political Edge and Ground Zero for on-ground expertise.
“These consultancies combine data science, technology, and management services, giving candidates an edge. They can help newcomers without a godfather to enter the political arena, and present odds of a candidate winning an election through data-driven analysis, which prevents wastage of resources,” says Amit Sihag, Congress’s Dabwali MLA.
Not only political consultancies, there is also a big market for political consultants. Therefore, platforms like the School of Politics offer online courses on “political campaigns, electoral strategy, and political communication”.
Vaishnavi Nagar, a political consultant with Mindshare Analytics, says, “Most people who enter the field want to have a say in society. Many professionals take a sabbatical to come and work in these consultancies, as they are hired on equivalent pay and they get to contribute to the political process and messaging, understand how politics works on the ground, and it also stands out as a value add on their resume. I recommend it to UPSC aspirants with a gap year as it gives them an opportunity to utilise their knowledge and get rid of the gap in their CV.”
The power of social media
Social media management is the most sought after-service from the consultancies. “For every ground intelligence company, there are at least 10 social media management companies,” says Shrivastav.
At the Rangesh Sridhar-run Varahe Analytics, which also works for the BJP, the focus is on social media management. An employee, on the condition of anonymity, said, “The social media team works round-the-clock over multiple shifts. They are under the most pressure, but also get the best resources.”
Comparing electioneering pre-and-post the political consultancy boom, Faridabad MLA Neeraj Sharma says, “During my parents’ time, party workers and their families would stitch flags themselves, and then then go around town distributing them, they would campaign for the party and its candidate through prabhat pheris and jalsas. Now, people don’t have that kind of time, besides there are so many rules, you can no longer paste a poster or write on buildings’ walls. This is where the political consultancies come in. They help generate content to take the right messaging to the voters through social media, which has now become a major aspect of electioneering. They create both positive and negative social media campaigns, which helps one to reach out to the floating voters.”
So, have these consultancies made fighting elections more expensive? Both Sharma and Sihag agree. “Individuals or those fighting independently might not be able to afford these consultancies, which certainly affects their campaign and winnability against those who have all these resources.” says Sihag.
“The odds are anyway stacked against those who want to enter the political arena, but are neither dynasts nor rich, the ability to afford consultants to design and manage your campaign is just another thing that skews the curve,” says Shrivastav, who was once an aspiring politician himself, and has worked as a political consultant for almost a decade.
Why have politicians come to rely on political consultancies so much? Paminder Singh, who specialises in campaign management, says, “Consultancies have been able to put a supply chain in place. For instance, door-to-door outreach has always been a part of campaigning, but before consultancies there was no sure way to know whether party workers were going to all the homes, there was no mechanism to record and analyse the feedback received. Political consultancies have been able to structure the electioneering processes, and ensure optimum usage of resources.”
Abjit, however, attributes it to the data-backed reports. “Politicians may be told by their acolytes that they are sure to win, but consultancies, armed with facts and figures, show them where they are strong and where they are lagging, and what could be done to get the desired outcome.”
Sam Dam Dand Bhed: What is the modern-day Chanakyaniti?
Data analytics is the fuel driving the political consultancy business. So, how do these consultancies gather accurate data? Most firms carry out surveys, either through teams sent on ground or call centres.
Asked about whether one can buy data pertaining to individual voting preferences in India, Shrivastav says, “Personally, I don’t think it is possible in India at all, as 30-35 per cent people make up their mind as to whom they want to vote for, while standing in the polling booth. Besides, we have a thousand voting levers, it could be identity-based, caste-based, or monetarily driven. It is not possible to purchase or collect that sort of data through an app. Apps could help one gather information about who lives in a particular area. For instance, one could find at least a hundred Brahmins living in a voting booth, but one cannot determine their voting inclination,” says Shrivastav.
The question arises that with there being no regulatory authority governing these consultancies, what is there to stop these firms from using the proverbial sam, dam dand bhed to ensure their client’s victory. A political consultant, on condition of anonymity, admits, “The line between a political consultancy and political party often blurs.”
Asked about consultants shifting from one consultancy to the other with sensitive data or taking money for candidate selection, Abjit says, “These reports come out sooner or later, and damage the person and consultancy’s credibility. They are not taken lightly, and several checks and balances are put into place to ensure this does not happen. After all, the business runs on trust.”