House prices in Wales have fallen to their lowest levels in nearly two years.
The average house price in Wales fell to £229,263 in the first quarter of 2024, making this the fifth consecutive quarter that prices have fallen.
House prices are now almost £20,000 below the peak recorded at the back end of 2022, according to figures from Principality Building Society’s Wales House Price Index.
The Principality Index for the first quarter (Q1) of 2024 shows the rise and fall in house prices in each of the 22 local authorities in Wales.
Principality’s report shows the average house price in Wales has fallen by 2.1% since last quarter and is now down 6.5% when compared to the same period the previous year.
Changes to average house prices in counties across Wales
The biggest change in average house prices across Q1 of 2024 for Wales was recorded in the Vale of Glamorgan.
The south Wales county saw house prices, on average, fall by 11.8% in Q1 meaning it has now seen an average annual drop of 15.7%.
The next biggest change was recorded in Anglesey, where average house prices fell by 11.2% in the first quarter of 2024.
The biggest increases (for Q1) were recorded in Blaenau Gwent, up 8.6%, and Flintshire, up 8.5%.
All the average house price changes in each county from Q1 in 2024 can be found below:
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Anglesey – average house price: £250,303 (annual change: -6.5% / quarterly change: -11.2%)
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Blaenau Gwent – £149,012 (-1.8% / +8.6%)
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Bridgend – £228,346 (-0.8% / -1.6%)
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Caerphilly – £198,979 (+1.3% / -0.7%)
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Cardiff – £283,960 (-5.6% / -7.9%)
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Carmarthenshire – £202,387 (-10.0% / -0.9%)
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Ceredigion – £260,629 (-2.5% / -5.8%)
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Conwy – £231,704 (-4.4% / +1.5%)
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Denbighshire – £197,581 (-13.8% / -5.1%)
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Flintshire – £252,092 (+12.4% / +8.5%)
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Gwynedd – £234,111 (+2.2% / -8.8%)
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Merthyr Tydfil – £154,263 (-12.4% / -1.6%)
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Monmouthshire – £339,259 (-5.0% / +0.6%)
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Neath Port Talbot – £160,450 (-6.8% / -4.1%)
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Newport – £239,215 (-8.1% / -1.5%)
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Pembrokeshire – £247,130 (-3.0% / -4.7%)
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Powys – £244,875 (-10.8% / -2.5%)
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Rhondda Cynon Taf – £171,376 (-1.2% / +2.7%)
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Swansea – £233,374 (+1.9% / +6.8%)
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Torfaen – £210,130 (-8.5% / +0.9%)
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Vale of Glamorgan – £287,418 (-15.7% / -11.8%)
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Wrexham – £210,917 (-7.5% / -1.2%)
House prices in Wales may have reached their lowest point
Head of Distribution at Principality Building Society, Shaun Middleton, said: “The downward trend of house prices has continued for the fifth consecutive quarter in Wales.
“Economic pressures, coupled with the higher cost of mortgages has meant affordability continues to be a problem for many buyers, placing undoubtable pressure on the housing market in Wales.
“The picture across Wales shows that overwhelmingly local authorities have been reporting price decreases, rather than increases, translating into another year-on-year falling of house prices.”
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There were just under 8,400 transactions in Wales in the first quarter of 2024, 15% fewer than the last quarter of 2023.
This downward trend is reflected across the rest of the UK, with wider economic pressures facing the housing market acting as a major drag on demand and activity levels during the quarter.
In Wales, quarterly sales transactions have declined continuously year-on-year since late 2021, according to Principality.
But Mr Middleton said house prices have now reached their lowest point and next quarter they may begin to rise again.
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He said: “Consumer confidence is also improving, along with wage growth, as pent-up demand for housing builds.
“Looking ahead, there may well be another fiscal event from the UK Government, but at the very least a General Election on the horizon, and a newly formed Welsh Government in Wales with a mandate to tackle affordable housing.
“Together with our insight, this suggests that this quarter may well represent the low point for house prices in Wales, which we expect to rise as affordability increases.”
House prices in Wales have seen their biggest decline since the 2009 financial crash, according to new figures.
The Principality Building Society said the average house price at the end of 2023 was £234,000 – down by 6% from a record high the year before.
Merthyr Tydfil saw the biggest drop with prices down by more than 20%.
Gwynedd, Anglesey, Cardiff and Caerphilly were the only areas where prices increased.
This is the fourth consecutive quarter that prices have fallen in Wales.
The figures have been released from Principality Building Society’s Wales House Price Index for October to December 2023, which demonstrates the rise and fall in house prices in each of the 22 local authorities in Wales.
House prices in Wales are now down 6% – or £15,000 – when compared to the same period the previous year when the peak price of £249,076 was recorded.
Despite this being the largest year-on-year decline of Wales’ average house price since the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009, house prices remain 25% higher than five years ago.
While two local authorities – Cardiff and Caerphilly – reported record high prices at £308,648 and £207,904 at the end of 2023, the figures revealed a “subdued market” with year-on-year price falls recorded in 18 of the 22 local authorities.
Six local authorities – Monmouthshire, Carmarthenshire, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Denbighshire and Merthyr Tydfil – all experienced double digit price falls when compared to the same period the previous year, with Merthyr Tydfil reporting the largest fall of 21.2%.
Shaun Middleton, head of distribution at Principality Building Society, said: “The housing market in Wales has been through a difficult period.
“Given the continued squeeze on the cost of living alongside the higher cost of mortgages, as households came off much lower fixed rates, it is little wonder that some have forecast continuing price falls in 2024, followed by a recovery in 2025.”
He added there were “some positive signs”, such as lower inflation and an expectation that the Bank of England rate has now peaked at 5.25% and will fall during 2024.
“Indeed, financial markets are pricing in several rate cuts, bringing the Bank of England rate down to 4% later in the year,” he said.
“Mortgage markets have already moved, with lenders cutting rates quite significantly as competition intensifies, and we might expect that to continue.”