Next week will see revised Q4 growth figures for the US and the UK. Usually, updated estimates aren’t much to write home about, and US figures will probably meet little fanfare. But in the UK, the revision could be crucial: when GDP contracted by 0.3 per cent in the final quarter of the year, it plunged the UK into a technical – albeit mild – recession.
When the margins are this fine, revisions can pack a punch, and a closer look at Office for National Statistics data reveals that revisions of 0.3 percentage points are not uncommon. This means that when improved data is released next Thursday, the current recession could be rendered even milder – or ‘revised away’ completely.
According to the Nationwide house price index, annual house price growth returned to positive territory for the first time in a year last month, with prices up 1.2 per cent. Yet the outlook remains uncertain. Swap rates (which underpin mortgage rates) have drifted upwards this year. Updated figures will be released on Friday.
Monday 25 March
Japan: Final leading index figures, corporate services
UK: CBI Distributive Trades survey
US: Building permits, Chicago Fed Index, new home sales, Dallas Fed Index
Tuesday 26 March
US: Core capital goods, durable goods orders, FHFA HPI, consumer confidence, Richmond Fed Index
Wednesday 27 March
Euro area: Business climate; consumer, economic, industrial and services confidence
Thursday 28 March
Euro area: M3 money supply
Japan: Trade balance, unemployment rate, industrial production, retail sales
UK: Current account, FDI, final Q4 GDP figures, government & household expenditure, business investment
US: Final Q4 GDP figures, Chicago PMI, final Michigan Sentiment data, pending home sales, Kansas City Fed Index
Friday 29 March
Japan: Constriction orders, housing starts
UK: Nationwide HPI
US: PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, personal consumption, personal income, wholesale inventories
