Sales at the nation’s 100 biggest home builders tumbled 46 per cent to 358.3 billion yuan (US$49.6 billion) in March from a year earlier, according to data published by China Real Estate Information Corp (CRIC), following an annualised 60 per cent slide in February. First-quarter sales fell 48 per cent to 779.2 billion yuan, it added.
March’s decline marked the 10th in a row of shrinking sales. It was almost double the figure a month earlier because of the low-base effect when new home sales in February hit the lowest level since 2019.
“Sentiment is still weak, demand is still lacklustre and the market outlook is still unclear at this point,” CRIC analysts said in the report published on Sunday. “We do not expect to see a significant turnaround in terms of supply and demand in the coming months. Developers will continue to face pressure on home sales.”
The industry has struggled to rebound from China’s “three red lines” policy unveiled in August 2020, a measure that shut the nation’s weakest borrowers out of the capital market. A liquidity squeeze has since triggered an unprecedented crisis as junk-rated developers defaulted on more than US$160 billion of bonds since then, according to a Goldman Sachs estimate.
“Demand in China’s property sector will be more polarised,” said Wang Xingping, a senior analyst at Fitch Bohua. “Pre-owned homes offer more room for price negotiation and lower cost of transaction compared to new homes.”
‘We can get through,’ says China Vanke boss as 2023 profits slump
‘We can get through,’ says China Vanke boss as 2023 profits slump
China Vanke, the second-largest by sales, last week said earnings tumbled by 46 per cent in 2023, the biggest slide since it went public in 1991. Longfor Group’s earnings almost halved, while Sino-Ocean Group suffered another year of hefty losses. Country Garden, once China’s largest developer by sales, said it would miss a deadline to file its annual results.
Bonds sold by China Vanke and Longfor lost their investment-grade quality, when they were downgraded into junk territory by Fitch Ratings last month.
Analysts at CRIC said new home sales in April could match or rise slightly from the level in March. Homebuyers became selective by picking projects undertaken by state-backed developers such as China Land Resources, as Beijing took steps to inject more liquidity and ease buying limits and mortgage rates.
The builder expressed optimism for a sector-wide stabilisation, echoing the People’s Bank of China’s remark last month that some “positive signals” have emerged in the country’s property market.
From its glorious beaches to unique suburban neighborhoods and vibrant cities, New Jersey can be a great place to call home. And its proximity to two major metro areas – New York City and Philadelphia – make it a prime spot for job seekers looking to grow their careers.
The average home value in New Jersey is $503,432, according to Zillow. That’s a 9% increase from a year ago. Three New Jersey metropolitan areas made Realtor.com’s list forecasting the hottest U.S. markets in 2024: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, ranking No. 23; New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA, ranking No. 75; and Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD, ranking No. 80. These markets were ranked based on a combination of forecasted home price growth and predicted number of sales.
If you’re hoping to buy a New Jersey home, it’s important to find a great real estate agent to help with your search. Here are some of the top real estate companies in the Garden State by sales volume, according to RealTrends agent ranking service.
Based in Colonia in the heart of central New Jersey, the Robert Dekanski Team has recorded over $2 billion in sales and sold more than 10,000 properties. Robert Dekanski began selling New Jersey real estate in 2002. The team of 66 consists of agents and support staff serving buyers looking for homes across the Garden State.
Based in Hoboken, the Jill Biggs Group is dedicated to helping homebuyers in Hudson County. Affiliated with Coldwell Banker Realty, the team of more than 50 focuses on areas that include Weehawken, Jersey City and other neighborhoods that are only a quick train ride across the river from Manhattan. Jill Biggs has more than 20 years of experience in New Jersey real estate. In 2023, the group earned $434 million in sales.
Chris Walsh leads The Real Estate Leaders, a group of 70 agents assisting buyers and sellers throughout New Jersey, though mainly focused on Monmouth County.
Since 2003, Walsh has sold over $750 million worth of real estate and more than 1,200 homes. Affiliated with eXp Realty LLC, the group earned $305 million in sales in 2023.
With offices in Short Hills, Summit and Chatham, the Sue Adler Team is dedicated to helping homeowners looking to buy in northern New Jersey. Affiliated with Keller Williams Realty Premier Properties, the firm, which consists of nearly 40 professionals, focuses on towns that include Westfield, Berkeley Heights, Maplewood, Livingston and South Orange. Sue Adler, the firm’s CEO, has more than 20 years of experience selling real estate.
The Jack Binder Group has been a top-producing real estate team since 1986. Based in Avalon, the Jack Binder Group focuses on the beach communities of Avalon and Stone Harbor. The team of seven is committed to helping New Jersey buyers find their ideal shore home. In 2023, the group earned $268 million in sales. The Jack Binder Group is affiliated with Ferguson Dechert Real Estate.
With offices in Westfield, Summit, Jersey City, Ridgewood, Short Hills and Red Bank, the Michelle Pais Group at Signature Realty brings 68 combined years of real estate experience to the table. The team of 14 has sold more than 4,000 homes totaling upward of $1.5 billion. Michelle Pais, the firm’s owner, has been selling real estate for almost 20 years. The firm’s target areas include Westfield, Mountainside, Summit, Cranford and Clark.
With offices in Margate and Margate City, Paula Hartman and her staff of 15 serve the communities of Margate, Longport, Atlantic City, Ocean City and surrounding beach towns. Affiliated with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices, The Hartman Home Team earned $250 million in sales in 2023. Paula Hartman works alongside her daughter and son-in-law, Dana and Brian Hiltner, and her son, Todd Gordon.
Known as SEG, Stacy Esser Group Realty has a staff of seven based in Tenafly, situated in northeast New Jersey across from New York City. Affiliated with Keller Williams Town Life Realty, SEG earned $213 million in 2023.
Former pro tennis player Aleksandr Pritsker is founder and CEO of Team Blackstar, a Montclair-based real estate firm with a staff of 15. Affiliated with eXp Realty, Team Blackstar serves Marlboro, Manalapan, Colts Neck, Freehold and Holmdel. In 2023, the firm earned $213 million in sales.
Affiliated with eXp Realty and led by realtor Matthew Rowack, the Rowack Real Estate Team is a group of nearly 70 real estate agents with an office in North Brunswick. The Rowack Real Estate Team serves the communities of Edison, East Brunswick, Monroe, Piscataway, Franklin and Princeton. In 2023, the group earned $209 million in sales.
How to Find a Real Estate Agent Near You
Your search for a real estate agent in New Jersey could start with one of the firms above. But it’s a good idea to interview several real estate agents and find out how they work before settling on yours. Buying a home in New Jersey is hardly an inexpensive prospect, and it’s something you want to get right. Take the time to find the perfect agent for you.
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Property investments and sales in mainland China continue on a downwards trajectory despite Beijing’s efforts to inject liquidity and boost demand, but the rate of decline has slowed in a sign that the market is starting to stabilise, according to analysts.
In January and February, total property investment declined 9 per cent year on year to 1.18 trillion yuan (US$164.5 billion), according to data released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Investment in residential property fell 9.7 per cent to 882.3 billion yuan.
Overall investment slid 9.6 per cent in 2023, NBS said.
“The overall risk [in China’s property market] is manageable because the decline in investment is narrowing, which is a sign that the supply side is stabilising,” said Yan Yuejin, director of Shanghai-based E-house China Research and Development Institute.
The competitive landscape of the property industry is changing, with companies that have healthier financials taking part in more projects than their smaller peers – another positive sign that the troubled market is improving, Yan said.
“With [banks] offering stronger financing support, property investment will likely gain more momentum later,” he said.
Property sales by floor area fell 20.5 per cent year on year in January and February, compared with a decline of 8.5 per cent in all of 2023, according to NBS. Meanwhile, sales value fell by 29.3 per cent year on year in the first two months, compared with a 2023 slide of 6.5 per cent.
The year-on-year decline in January and February sales is due in part to a high base last year, after the removal of Covid-19 restrictions released pent-up demand, pushing sales to record highs, said Chen Wenjing, director of market research at China Index Academy, a real estate research firm.
A longer Lunar New Year holiday and an increase in travel also slowed sales of new homes this year, she noted.
China’s economy rebounds at start of 2024, but property remains a ‘big problem’
China’s economy rebounds at start of 2024, but property remains a ‘big problem’
Additional data from the China Index Academy showed that total sales of second-hand homes in 25 major cities in China declined by 13.1 per cent in January and February by floor area, “significantly lower” than the rate of decline in the new home market in the same period, said Chen.
“Demand is recovering steadily overall, and the second-hand market is expected to maintain its momentum as we hope to see more demand being generated from homeowners wanting to trade-in and upgrade their homes,” she said.
China’s home prices continued to decline for the ninth month in February on a month on month basis, according to data released on Friday by NBS. Second-hand home prices dropped by 0.8 per cent month on month in first-tier cities, and 0.6 per cent in second- and third-tier cities over the same period.
“Most property-related activity worsened broadly and meaningfully in year-on-year terms in January-February, reflecting either unfavourable base effects or sequential weakness,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note.
“Property activity has probably undershot underlying demographic demand amid the ongoing property downturn, but an increasing proportion of demand has been met by the large supply of vacant existing homes.”
You may be in the market to buy a house, know someone who recently purchased or are waiting for the right time to start looking, but you’re likely aware that the real estate market is tough right now. In Gallup’s annual Economy and Personal Finance Poll, conducted in April and published in early May, 69% of respondents said now is a bad time to buy a house – the first time a majority of Americans have felt that way in the poll’s 44-year history.
There are certainly factors contributing to the majority sentiment – few homes on the market, rising interest rates and new housing construction that isn’t able to have a significant impact on demand. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a bad time to buy for everyone, and it doesn’t mean it’s a bad time to be a homeowner. In fact, current conditions may mean current homeowners are in a position to sit comfortably.
Here are a few housing market trends shaping up this summer and in the latter half of 2022:
- Rising interest rates make buying a home more expensive, and homeowners are disinclined to sell.
- The prime time for refinancing mortgages has passed.
- Affordability limits are also reaching the new construction market.
- Rents are still rising, but not necessarily as fast as the last year.
Experts are breaking down current conditions and predictions for buyers, sellers, new construction and renters for the rest of 2022.
Buying
Despite mortgage interest rates remaining historically low over the past two years, homebuyers have struggled to be able to find houses on the market. “The inventory is there, but it’s just a matter of it’s flying off the shelves in a matter of days,” says Nick Bailey, CEO of Re/Max.
When buyers are able to make an offer on a home, fierce competition among buyers has driven prices up, and the beginning of 2022 saw that trend continue. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reports the median home sale price for the first quarter of 2022 was $428,700, nearly 19% above the median sale price for the first quarter of 2021, which was $369,800.
Since the end of 2021, mortgage interest rates have also been on the rise after nearly two years near or below 3%. As of May 19, the average mortgage interest rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 5.25%, according to Freddie Mac. Rates are still low from a historical perspective, but much higher than recent memory.
With higher interest rates, the total cost of a home for buyers rises even beyond already sky-high prices. “If I were to go and buy a home, I have to pay more per month for it, and so there’s the affordability crunch,” says Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American Financial Corporation, which provides title insurance and risk solutions services for real estate transactions.
While that will likely mean some buyers will opt not to purchase a home this year, it means active buyers can worry less about bidding wars and dropping concessions in order to entice a seller.
“It’s going to cool the competitive landscape a bit, and prices are stabilizing,” Bailey says.
Selling
Stabilizing prices provide some relief to buyers, but that doesn’t mean sellers are losing out. Both Bailey and Fleming note that prices are likely to continue to rise in most markets, but at a slower pace than we’ve seen over the past two years.
The rate of home value appreciation over the past two years is unsustainable in the long-term – it’s simply been too high for buyers to be able to keep up much longer. Homeowners can be happy with what has happened though: Bailey points out that in most markets throughout the U.S., the average annual equity gain for homeowners is higher than average salary growth.
Even so, expect fewer homeowners to put their home on the market as interest rates remain high compared to recent years. Sellers, in most cases, will also need to purchase a new home to move into, and most don’t feel the need to trade their current low-rate mortgage for one that has a higher rate and doesn’t have the same equity.
Fleming describes the dilemma homeowners currently face as a rate lock-in effect: Homeowners have in previous years locked in a much lower interest rate, and so selling a home to buy a new one now costs extra money because interest rates have risen. “The rate lock-in effect creates a financial penalty to moving,” Fleming says.
Homeowners are also unlikely to refinance their mortgages in the near future, as there’s no incentive to refinance to what would likely be a higher interest rate than the rate obtained in the last two or three years.
Not all homeowners are capable of remaining in their home, however. Legal services company LegalShield uses its data collected from customers seeking legal help on various issues to measure financial activity in its Economic Stress Index. When it comes to foreclosures, the index rose in April for the fourth straight month.
However, at least part of that is still related to the catch-up from the foreclosure moratoriums put in place in 2020 during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. The federal moratorium ended in September 2021, and many local moratoriums have since ended as well.
Matt Layton, senior vice president of legal services for LegalShield, notes that the U.S. is still at “almost record lows for foreclosure rates” compared to the time prior to the pandemic. As affordability crunches continue to put financial pressure on people, “we think we’re going to continue seeing an increase in foreclosures,” Layton says.
New Construction and Development
Don’t expect new construction to have a big impact on demand this summer – or the rest of this year, for that matter. “They’re building houses at a pretty fair clip, the problem is they can’t get them finished,” Fleming says.
Continued supply chain issues in building materials and appliances mean home construction faces holdups in the process, and completion is delayed often.
Though homebuilder confidence started the year strong, it has since dropped, according to the Housing Market Index by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo, which asks builders across the U.S. how they feel about sales of new single-family houses currently, in the next six months and the traffic of prospective buyers. Preliminary numbers for May reveal builders feel the least confident about the traffic of prospective buyers, which is rated at 52 out of 100, while confidence for single-family sales in the present is at 78.
Similar feelings are reflected in the LegalShield Economic Stress Index, which shows movement for construction dropping over the last year. Layton connects the drop in buyer activity for a new home with the decreased affordability, caused by rising interest rates, rising prices and potentially higher costs of building materials.
“We are beginning to see the consumer pull back and say, ‘I’m not going to buy that house right now,’” Layton says.
Renting
Like home prices in the last year, rents have also climbed rapidly in much of the U.S. Rental information company Zumper reports in its May National Rent Index that rents, on a national scale, hit an all-time high in May, with one-bedroom apartments up 12.8% year over year and two-bedroom apartments up 13.9% year over year. However, the month-over-month growth, at just 0.3% for a one-bedroom and 0.7% for a two-bedroom, could be a sign of softening.
“With home sales starting to slow thanks to rising interest rates and increasing inventory, May’s slightly cooler rent increases could foreshadow a less frantic rental market,” said Jeff Andrews, senior economic analyst for Zumper, in a press release.
Though, the report notes that rents aren’t expecting to see any significant decline – and while home prices have reached an affordability wall, rents in many markets still have a ways to go before reaching the same point.
Rent is one of those areas that often impacts consumers early on, according to Layton. And as financial pressure mounts, higher rents could become a problem. “We’re beginning to see stress on the everyday consumer. We’re also beginning to see record high landlord-tenant intake,” Layton says.
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There are plenty of scenarios that make selling your home necessary – whether it’s to move across the country to be closer to family, because you need to downsize or you can’t afford mortgage payments anymore.
But when your timeline to move is flexible, you likely want to try to strategize over when and how you place your home on the market to find buyers, maximize profit and make it easier to buy a new home, if that’s what you’re doing next.
Thus far in 2023, homeowners have experienced a different market than they witnessed in the early years of the pandemic with rapidly rising home prices, with higher interest rates since 2022 still tempering demand somewhat. While the latter half of 2023 may see a recession, mortgage interest rates are expected to stabilize and some buyers may be able to return to the market with renewed buying power. Buyers who have been in their homes for at least a few years can expect to see that their property value has grown – though it may look less thrilling than the peaks of 2021.
If you’re on the fence about selling, you have a few choices: You can put your house up for sale to take advantage of current low inventory, you can wait to see how interest rates and inflation play out as they relate to housing or you can opt to stay in your current home for the foreseeable future.
Here are three reasons you shouldn’t sell your home in 2023, along with three reasons it’s a good idea to make the jump in the next 12 months:
If you’re one of the many homeowners who have moved or refinanced in the last few years, there’s no reason to consider selling your home in the immediate future. Hopefully, your mortgage has helped ease any financial woes with low monthly payments.
Ahead of 2022, many homeowners were able to lock into mortgage rates below 3%, which makes selling any time in the near future far less attractive. Unless other factors are making a move necessary, enjoy the low interest rate you locked in and continue to build equity in your home.
Mortgage rates have risen and dropped many times during the first half of 2023, but have remained below the peak of 7.08% for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage in November 2022, according to Freddie Mac. As of June 15, Freddie Mac reported the average interest rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.69%.
But if you managed to secure an interest rate below 3% – or even 2%, for some homeowners – you’ll see little incentive to more than triple your interest rate for a new home.
You won’t be the only homeowner feeling locked into your property based on mortgage rates. “That’s likely to keep a lid on how much inventory growth we’re going to see,” says Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com.
Over the course of the last couple of years, worries about affording your next home purchase were tied to the housing market’s rising prices and lack of new homes for sale. Now, add interest rates between 6% and 7% to the mix, and there seems to be little financial benefit to buying a new home. Don’t be afraid to wait to sell your home if you think the timing isn’t right.
Even with plenty of home equity, you may find that your buying power is diminished when you factor in how much more you would have to pay toward interest each month.
“That’s a tough financial calculus, and that’s keeping the more discretionary sellers out of the market right now,” says Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for multiple listing service Bright MLS.
If you can’t afford the home you would want to have next, it makes sense to wait to put your house on the market.
The market is more balanced than it was in 2021 or even in the first half of 2022, but housing inventory still remains low. Plenty of other homeowners are opting not to list their home for the time being, and while there are fewer buyers than there were in the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, more are coming back to the market than you may expect.
“In the spring of this year we saw buyers come back. Newly pending listings have ticked up,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior economist for Zillow.
Shopping for a new home is still easier than it was in 2021 because you’re less likely to have to compete with as many multiple offers and bids well above the asking price. But there were more than 24% fewer new listings in May 2023 compared with May 2022, according to Zillow. With fewer homes on the market to choose from, you may struggle to find the right number of bedrooms, ideal location or overall feel that will make you willing to take on a higher interest rate.
“The market’s still very competitive,” Divounguy says.
Mortgage rates reached higher levels in 2022 than in recent memory. For many homeowners, that’s enough to opt to stay in their current house. For others, the interest rate isn’t as much of a concern.
“There may be buyers that are not as rate sensitive,” says Mike Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, a Philadelphia-based wealth management firm. You may be a cash buyer without plans to finance your next house at all, or you may have enough equity in your current home to feel confident you can buy down your next mortgage rate to a more attractive level.
The more prolonged period of interest rates above 6% has also given many would-be homebuyers the opportunity to adjust to the prospect of higher mortgage costs – it may require an adjusted budget, but it doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t make a purchase.
“Buyers seem to be OK with the idea that 7% is the norm, not the exception,” Divounguy says.
Plus, at the end of the day there is no way to perfectly time the market. If you can afford to move and want to move, selling your home in 2023 may be the best timing when there’s no way to know what’s ahead in 2024 and beyond.
Many housing markets across the U.S. are still seeing plenty of buyer interest, but properties aren’t getting the regular bidding wars and sky-high sale prices they were in 2021. If you sell your home in 2023, buyers will be less inclined to offer above the asking price – and they may not look at all if the asking price is too much.
Divounguy explains that the houses selling fast today and receiving more than one offer are those that are priced to sell and offer all the marketing bells and whistles, like a 3D home tour and professional photography.
Unless your real estate agent says otherwise based on recent sales in your area, you’re unlikely to get $100,000 above the asking price for your starter home without an appraisal contingency. With buyers looking carefully at their budgets, they’ll be making serious offers based on what makes sense for their budget and what they believe your home is worth.
If you need to move for any reason, it’s still possible to sell your home and find a new one. If you lost your job, you may be worried about your ability to continue to pay your mortgage. If that’s the case, selling may be a valid option. But plenty of others are opting for a life change that involves moving to another state, more room for a growing family or a bigger footprint needed for permanent work-from-home space.
A profitable sale and purchase of a new home is still possible – but proper preparation and realistic expectations are key.
Additionally, change in conditions can open doors for buyers to come back to the market – particularly if mortgage interest rates shift down further and if inflation continues to decline. If a recession occurs in the latter half of 2023 as experts predict, a drop in mortgage rates could help buyers get back in the market.
However, don’t expect the Federal Reserve to be too eager to drop rates suddenly in the event of an economic downturn. While mortgage interest rates are technically independent of the Fed’s funds rate, they often reflect changes. “The Fed’s going to be very careful not to reignite inflation that has become very sticky,” says Reynolds, who anticipates mortgage rates to remain on the high end where they’ve been through the end of the year.
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