![Figure 1: HPI & HPI Forecast % Change YoY (Graphic: Business Wire)](https://ukpropertyguides.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Monthly-US-Home-Price-Gains-Dip-Below-Seasonal-Average-in.jpeg)
![](https://ukpropertyguides.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/1717509751_479_Monthly-US-Home-Price-Gains-Dip-Below-Seasonal-Average-in.jpeg)
![](https://ukpropertyguides.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/1717509751_479_Monthly-US-Home-Price-Gains-Dip-Below-Seasonal-Average-in.jpeg)
![Table 1: Single-Family Combined HPI % Change & Market Condition Indicators Select Metros (Graphic: Business Wire)](https://ukpropertyguides.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/1717509751_773_Monthly-US-Home-Price-Gains-Dip-Below-Seasonal-Average-in.jpeg)
![Table 1: Single-Family Combined HPI % Change & Market Condition Indicators Select Metros (Graphic: Business Wire)](https://ukpropertyguides.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/1717509751_773_Monthly-US-Home-Price-Gains-Dip-Below-Seasonal-Average-in.jpeg)
![Table 2: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline (Graphic: Business Wire)](https://ukpropertyguides.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/1717509751_719_Monthly-US-Home-Price-Gains-Dip-Below-Seasonal-Average-in.jpeg)
![Table 2: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline (Graphic: Business Wire)](https://ukpropertyguides.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/1717509751_719_Monthly-US-Home-Price-Gains-Dip-Below-Seasonal-Average-in.jpeg)
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U.S. year-over-year single-family home price appreciation was 5.3% in April, the same as in March.
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All states posted annual appreciation in March, led by New Hampshire (12%), New Jersey (11%) and South Dakota (10.8%).
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Of the 10 tracked major U.S. metro areas, San Diego (9.9%) overtook Miami (9.7%) for the top spot.
IRVINE, Calif., June 04, 2024–(BUSINESS WIRE)–CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for April 2024.
Annual U.S. home price appreciation remained above 5% in April, with three states posting double-digit gains. By next spring, national price gains are projected to slow to 3.4%, with only a few states putting up increases of higher than 6%. This slow cooling reflects not only the increasing number of homes on the market in some parts of the country, but also elevated, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages, which remain around 7%, a major factor influencing America’s continuing housing affordability challenges.
“Home price growth continues to slow, as a comparison with a strong 2023 spring is still impacting year-over-year differences,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Nevertheless, the April uptick in mortgage rates to this year’s high has cooled some of the typical spring homebuyer demand, which pulled monthly gains of 1.1% below the March-to-April average.”
“The home price slowing also highlights buyers’ increased sensitivity to rising interest rates, as well as the anticipation that presumed lower rates down the road will help ease the affordability crunch,” Hepp continued. “Also, the price cooling is more pronounced in markets where there has been an influx of inventory and/or new construction, as well as those where additional homeownership costs (such as insurance, taxes and HOA fees) have risen relatively faster.”
Top Takeaways:
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U.S. single-family home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 5.3% year over year in April 2024 compared with April 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.1% compared with March 2024.
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In April, the annual appreciation of detached properties (5.7%) was 2 percentage points higher than that of attached properties (3.7%).
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CoreLogic’s forecast shows annual U.S. home price gains relaxing to 3.4% in April 2025.
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San Diego posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country’s 10 highlighted metro areas in April, at 9.9%. Miami saw the next-highest gain at 9.7%.
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Among states, New Hampshire ranked first for annual appreciation in April (up by 12%), followed by New Jersey (up by 11%) and South Dakota (up by 10.8%). No state recorded year-over-year home price losses.
The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring May 2024 data, is scheduled to be issued on July 2, 2024, at 8 a.m. EST.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicators
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
About the Market Condition Indicators
As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.
Source: CoreLogic
The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Robin Wachner at newsmedia@corelogic.com. For sales inquiries, visit https://www.corelogic.com/support/sales-contact/. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.
About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240604754107/en/
Contacts
Media Contact:
Robin Wachner
newsmedia@corelogic.com
Sales Contact:
https://www.corelogic.com/support/sales-contact/
Australian dwelling prices have experienced their largest monthly increase since October last year, rising by 0.8 per cent in May, with the middle-valued home in Australia now worth $785,556, according to new data released by CoreLogic.
It also marks the 16th straight month of price increases, as demand for housing remains well above the low levels of supply across the country.
Sydney remains the most expensive capital city with a median home price of $1.15 million — including both standalone houses and apartments — after recording 0.6 per cent growth during May.
However, Brisbane has now become the second-most expensive city for housing in the country, with prices jumping by 1.4 per cent during the month, and taking the median property price to $843,231.
It is the first time since 1997 that Brisbane has recorded the second-highest median dwelling value.
Canberra is now the third-most expensive capital city, followed by Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth.
CoreLogic’s research director Tim Lawless said the difference in the growth rates between the capital cities was due to low levels of supply in the markets that experienced the strongest demand — particularly in the mid-sized capitals.
“To say the housing market has been resilient is an understatement,” Mr Lawless said.
“Housing values are continuing to rise across most areas and housing types, with growth accelerating in some markets.
“The common denominator remains a mismatch between housing supply and housing demand.”
CoreLogic data showed that the available supply of homes for sale remains well below average, and is almost 2 per cent lower than it was 12 months ago.
Comparatively, demonstrated demand for housing is still above average, and is 2.8 per cent higher than a year ago.
“It’s this disconnect between supply and demand that is trumping the downside pressures from interest rates, high inflation and low sentiment,” Mr Lawless said.
“Despite worsening affordability pressures, from both a purchasing and a rental perspective, Australian residents still need to keep a roof over their heads.”
Housing supply and demand will eventually even out, he said, due to slower population growth and a surge in construction.
However, Mr Lawless said that until more housing is built Australians can expect “further upwards pressure” on housing values, and “further erosion in housing affordability”.
![a man in a suit on a street](https://ukpropertyguides.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CoreLogic-house-price-data-show-Brisbane-overtaking-Melbourne-and-Canberra.jpeg)
Brisbane house prices now higher than Melbourne
Dwelling values in Brisbane first overtook the median value for Melbourne back in January, which CoreLogic attributed to Melbourne having a higher concentration of “relatively cheap” units and apartments.
Four months later, CoreLogic noted that house values in Brisbane are now higher than the median house value in Melbourne.
It’s the first time since June 2008 that Brisbane’s house prices have been more expensive than those in Melbourne.
CoreLogic data shows that Brisbane’s median house value is currently $937,479 — which is $190 more than Melbourne’s median house value.
Brisbane’s median unit value of $615,429 is also higher than Melbourne’s median unit value by $1,130.
![The brisbane skyline over a suburban neighbourhood.](https://ukpropertyguides.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/1717366458_930_CoreLogic-house-price-data-show-Brisbane-overtaking-Melbourne-and-Canberra.jpeg)
The change in values means Brisbane’s property prices have increased by more than five times the pace of those in Melbourne since the COVID-19 pandemic, with CoreLogic figures showing Brisbane’s property values have grown by 59.8 per cent compared to 11.2 per cent in Melbourne.
Prior to the pandemic, CoreLogic said Melbourne’s median dwelling value had premium of about 37 per cent compared to Brisbane.
“The number of properties available for sale in Perth and Adelaide remain more than -40 per cent below the five-year average for this time of the year while Brisbane listings are -34 per cent below average,” Mr Lawless said.
“Inventory levels in these markets remain well below average despite vendor activity lifting relative to this time last year.
“Fresh listings are being absorbed rapidly by market demand, keeping stock levels low and upwards pressure on prices.”
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Behind the smiles and sold stickers, there appears to be a secret story of heartbreak behind a small but rapidly growing segment of home sales.
Figures from CoreLogic show a record 16 per cent of sales early this year were properties that had last changed hands less than three years prior.
Typically, this can be a sign of a hot property market, where investors are flipping houses and apartments to make a quick (and tax-effective) buck.
There’s probably a bit of this going on, with property prices back at record highs across much of Australia.
But the proportion of quick resales is notably higher than in previous boom markets, so it looks like there’s another factor at play.
As CoreLogic’s Eliza Owen says, that factor appears to be mortgage hardship.
“Where we’ve seen a rise in short-term resales, it’s probably a combo of mortgage stress and big capital gain windfalls,” she told me.
Is there evidence for this hunch? Yes, there is, fresh from the financial regulator.
Last week, ASIC released a critical report highlighting the many deficiencies in how banks treat customers suffering financial hardship.
My colleague Dan Ziffer wrote about it in detail.
However, that report also contained fresh data lifting a lid on Australia’s emerging mortgage crisis.
ASIC noted a 54 per cent surge in mortgage hardship notices lodged with banks over the final three months of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022.
In the report, ASIC notes: “A hardship notice is where a customer advises their lender of their inability to meet their obligations under a credit contract.”
Last year alone, 30 of Australia’s biggest lenders recorded more than 444,000 hardship notices connected to nearly 300,000 accounts.
About 40 per cent of these were related to mortgages, with more than 116,000 home loan accounts affected.
![The number of hardship notices related to mortgages filed with 30 major lenders.](https://ukpropertyguides.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Surging-mortgage-hardship-claims-and-quick-home-resales-are-early.png)
ASIC said more than 80 per cent of those, so at least 93,000, related to owner-occupier loans.
Mortgage cliff no myth
Close to 3.5 million Australian households have a mortgage on the home they live in, so that’s roughly 2.7 per cent of home loan borrowers who’ve told their bank they can’t pay under their current terms.
That’s a far more alarming number than the 0.7 per cent of home loans in 90-day arrears, which is commonly when banks start foreclosure procedures.
Alongside that arrears figure in the Reserve Bank’s latest Financial Stability Review, it noted, “a small but increasing share of borrowers have requested and received temporary hardship arrangements from their lenders, which has contributed to arrears rates remaining a little lower than would have otherwise been the case”.
If the RBA had a sneak peek of ASIC’s report, then “small but increasing” seems an understatement.
Some media and economic commentators have fixated on the relatively low rate of mortgage arrears as evidence that the mortgage cliff was a myth.
For those unfamiliar with the term, the mortgage cliff describes those who took out very cheap fixed-rate loans during the pandemic and are now rolling onto variable rates that are in most cases about three times higher.
Ignoring the fact that hundreds of thousands of borrowers are still rolling off cheap fixed rates this year, the hardship data from the end of 2023 appear to confirm that the cliff exists — it’s just that many banks have thrown their struggling customers a rope to keep them from tumbling to the bottom, at least temporarily.
Hardship provisions are designed to help people who’ve had a temporary setback — job loss, health problems, a relationship breakdown, natural disasters — until they can hopefully sort out their affairs and get back on track.
But ASIC’s survey showed the most common reason for seeking hardship assistance on mortgages was “overcommitment”.
![Overcommitment was the most common cause of mortgage hardship applications.](https://ukpropertyguides.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/1716912916_52_Surging-mortgage-hardship-claims-and-quick-home-resales-are-early.png)
In an interview with The Business, ASIC’s chair denied that meant what it appeared to say on the sticker — that tens of thousands of customers were lent too much money in the first place.
But given that the survey included reduced income, unemployment, medical, separation, bereavement, business failure, parental leave, abuse, natural disaster and others as a fairly exhaustive list of alternative categories, it’s hard not to conclude that banks simply lent too much money to a large group of people without factoring in sufficient buffers for interest rates rising.
It’s not surprising they did, and it’s equally unsurprising regulators are reluctant to admit it because it was a rule change by banking regulator APRA in 2019 that dropped a 7 per cent interest rate floor on mortgage serviceability tests for home loan applicants.
As rates fell in the lead-up to the pandemic, and then plunged with the RBA’s extraordinary stimulus, the repayment buffers that prospective borrowers were expected to demonstrate fell with them.
Given that APRA, ASIC and the RBA all sit on the Council of Financial Regulators, which oversees financial stability, it’s little wonder they are reluctant to acknowledge that many Australians were simply lent too much between 2020-2021.
To do so would be to admit they made a bad call to lower lending standards in 2019, acting after public requests from both the Morrison government and some of the big banks to ease restrictions on home loans.
‘Distressed’ sales at lows despite rising hardship
It must be noted that “during the review period, more than half the hardship notices related to home loans that had been open for more than five years”.
![Most hardship notices are for loans more than 5 years old.](https://ukpropertyguides.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/1716912917_229_Surging-mortgage-hardship-claims-and-quick-home-resales-are-early.png)
It makes sense that older loans account for a large share of hardship, as enough time has passed for many otherwise sound borrowers to fall foul of one of life’s many potential misfortunes.
But there was a sizeable group who were already in trouble less than three years into their mortgage.
This is the group that appears to be picked up by CoreLogic’s data, selling voluntarily before their hand is forced by their lender.
Thanks to generally rising property prices, most can get out without foreclosure or bankruptcy.
That’s probably why Domain’s index of “distressed listings” remains low.
It scrapes ads on the real estate website for terms like “urgent sale”, “desperate seller”, “mortgage in possession”, “repossession”, “distressed property/sale” and “forced property sale”.
Let’s face it, how many sellers want to tell prospective buyers they are desperate to sell?
But, with the ASIC report showing about 40 per cent of hardship cases falling straight into arrears once their assistance package ended, it wouldn’t be surprising to see distressed listings, and the broken dreams attached to them, on the rise later this year.
That distress could be compounded if a rise in listings reverses the growth in property prices that has given many borrowers a pass out of mortgage prison.
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