PwC pulls no punches in a just-published report titled “The sustainable food revolution: future-proofing the world’s food supply”.
“The world is facing a food crisis,” it says.
“This crisis is immediate, but also long-term. Shortages caused by the war in Ukraine have amplified … challenges to the sustainability of global food production based on population growth, climate change and increased reliance on resource-intensive farming. Food companies need to brace themselves for change.”
Such assertions make the political right and some in big business see red, but the report’s authors insist they are not planting leftist seeds. “It is not mere ideology to assert that global food production and distribution must change. It is a simple matter of facts and figures…”
And the facts and figures are pretty stark.
“According to the UN, if the global population continues its current growth trend and reaches 9.6 billion people by 2050, it will take three planet Earths to support current food consumption patterns. That means that long before 2050, the current system will either break down or will have to undergo radical change.”
The meat industry
The report notes that agriculture accounts for 26% of the global greenhouse gas emissions linked to climate change and that it uses half of the world’s habitable land. It is also responsible for 70% of freshwater consumption, and 94% of the planet’s mammal biomass excluding humans is now livestock – a massive dewilding of the world’s faunal populations. One key driver has been a long-term shift in the global diet towards meat.
“The total volume and proportion of meat in the world’s diet has grown dramatically,” the report notes, from 23kg annually per person to 43kg per person, with consumption strongly correlated to income: in Ethiopia, annual per capita meat consumption is just over 5kg, whereas in the US it is 124kg.
The beef on this front is that meat production is highly inefficient, requiring as much as 100 times of the land needed to plant agriculture to get the same amount of calories. Meat accounts for 80% of agricultural land use but only produces 11% of the calories consumed. And beef generates up to 18 times more carbon emissions than peas, potatoes, nuts and fruit per kilogram produced.
Where there’s a market, there’s a way
The report calls for a shift in the global diet, noting that simple substitutions can make a big difference. Meat-related carbon emissions would fall 50% and water usage by 30% if everyone ordered chicken instead of beef. A complete U-turn to vegan diets would halve the food-related emissions per person in a wealthy meat-eating country such as the US.
The report notes that a changing diet is not “far-fetched” and is already under way.
“Today the food industry has an opportunity to become a shaper of such trends, and not a victim of them. Particularly retailers have the chance to establish themselves as first movers in a changing market, improving brand reputation and gaining market share. They can guide consumer choices by making bold adjustments to their food offerings.”
The report also says that governments could mandate retailers “…to introduce genuine ‘externality’ pricing, using methodologies such as True Cost Accounting that reflect the environmental costs paid by society for a product, as well as the direct production costs of the food itself”.
This could be similar to proposed models for carbon taxes that would see governments reimburse citizens the average amount they paid, which would help low-income households.
Disgraceful food waste
Eliminating food waste is also crucial. About a third of all food currently produced – enough to feed two billion people – is lost to inefficiencies in harvesting, distribution and retail. The rollout of digital technologies such as data-driven precision agriculture and supply chain tracking are among the solutions to this disgraceful waste, the report says.
“Alternative protein sources will proliferate, including meat based on cell cultures that mimic animal protein sources … and foods derived from insects,” it says. “Food may even be manufactured at home, as 3D printing of food emerges, and fully tailored [personalised] meals become possible.”
The 3D printing of food does seem revolutionary and moves well beyond having a home garden. It’s all food for thought. It’s also possible that the meat industry will find ways to become more efficient and lower its carbon footprint.
The report itself notes that apocalyptic forecasts rarely pan out – Thomas Malthus’s late-18th-century view that population was kept in check because it grew geometrically whereas agricultural production grew arithmetically comes to mind – but this brewing food crisis is on a different scale.
“The need for far-reaching change in food production and food consumption is a matter of fact and calculation … it is likely to be incremental, but incremental change can have powerful effects,” the report says. DM
This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R29.
The transactions of new homes in Beijing jumped 38.5 per cent year on year to 6,106 units in December, bringing the total volume of new homes sold across the city to 66,000 units, or 74.9 million square metres. Meanwhile, new home prices rose by 0.17 per cent year on year and the prices of pre-owned homes dropped by 0.63 per cent in the same period.
An increase in new home sales was driven mainly by improved supply, instead of demand, said Chen Wenjing, director of market research at China Index Academy. “Overall, residents are still quite cautious about buying homes, and as the market enters into its off-season in January, sentiment will fall even more,” he said.
Improving transport, favourable policies may boost Greater Bay Area home sales
Improving transport, favourable policies may boost Greater Bay Area home sales
Wang Xingping, senior analyst of companies at Fitch Bohua, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, said the growing sales figures were linked to more quality listings entering the market and selling at higher price points, and were in no way indicative of a broad-based recovery in new home prices.
“Unless there is substantial improvement in buyer confidence, we do not think the trend of price increases will continue,” she said.
The pre-owned housing market is faced with even greater headwinds, analysts said, as second-hand homes usually have longer transaction cycles, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the second-hand homes market is more pronounced.
Ordinary buyers eye China’s foreclosed home bargains as investors retreat
Ordinary buyers eye China’s foreclosed home bargains as investors retreat
“Pre-owned homes are already hard to sell,” Chen said. “This, coupled with the fact that expectations of household incomes are still shaky, and homebuyers are hesitant to increase leverage [to buy homes], is putting a dent in demand.”
Gary Ng, a senior economist at French investment bank Natixis, said it takes time for policy support to translate into improved confidence, which, at the moment, is dampened by lower inflation.
“Developers would have greater incentive to sell as quickly as they can, and home prices will most likely flirt with deflation in the next few months,” he said.
Why China’s local governments are encouraging upgrades by homeowners
Why China’s local governments are encouraging upgrades by homeowners
Gao Yueqiu, a manufacturing industry professional living in the eastern coastal province of Shandong, said that she is interested in buying a flat for her daughter who lives and works in Beijing, but is facing many challenges.
“One of the main ones is permanent residency, which grants individuals or households the right to buy a home in a given city,” she said. “In order for someone who was not born in Beijing to buy property in the city, they need to at least have a work residence permit, which is not very easy to get.”
China’s property sector will rebound in 2024, developer forecasts
China’s property sector will rebound in 2024, developer forecasts
When asked about the effectiveness of the easing measures, Gao said the rules were “generally positive” for homebuyers and for Beijing’s property market, but she expects prices to keep dropping for a while.
“After all, there is too much inventory, and the population keeps falling … That said, if you put your money in the bank, you’re still losing money. The economy is bad and people have no place to invest their money, so placing your bet on Beijing’s property might not be such a bad idea.”
Shanghai’s rich seek refuge in overseas homes amid domestic property sell-off
Shanghai’s rich seek refuge in overseas homes amid domestic property sell-off
“The top priority for the government … in 2024 is the stabilisation of the Chinese economy,” said Alfredo Montufar-Helu, head of the China Center for Economics and Business at the Conference Board, a global non-profit think tank.
“Last year’s Central Economic Work Conference [CEWC] made it clear that the government will maintain a targeted and measured approach towards its stimulus measures to support growth as necessary, but without exacerbating systemic risks.
“With respect to the property sector, the mantra that ‘houses are for living in, not for speculation’ was not included in the official CEWC readout. In our view, this suggests that authorities are likely preparing to implement a range of targeted stimulus measures to help the sector bottom out from its current downturn and stabilise, which we believe is imperative for confidence levels to improve.”
China Index Academy’s Chen said that local governments could roll out more demand-side measures this year, including relaxing purchase restrictions on a “district-specific basis” in China’s first-tier cities, as well as providing subsidies to residents of lower-tier cities to encourage purchases.